KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?

YES · live

5.6¢

NO · live

95.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kx14amendcase-26-aug · fresh · feed 36s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

64.01%

max drawdown

34.43%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

7.25%

RMS drawdown

pain index

3.09%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

23.50%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.03

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.03

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

526

store

spread

2916.7 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kx14amendcase-26-aug/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING36.4s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

5.6¢

NO · live

95.2¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.80% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 100.80% (0.80pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.310 / 1.00 bits (31%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

5.6%5.6¢17.86×▬ +0.00pp

94.4%95.2¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.80% · arb gap 0.80pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

36.4s

·ticker

KX14AMENDCASE-26-AUG

▲YES bid

4.10¢

▲YES ask

5.50¢

ΣΣ sides

100.80%

⚖arb gap

0.800pp

$24h vol $

$588.0

◐open interest $

$472.0k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KX14AMENDCASE-26-AUG
Event ticker: KX14AMENDCASE-26
YES bid / ask: 4.10¢ / 5.50¢ (spread 1.40pp)
NO bid / ask: 94.50¢ / 95.90¢
Last YES: 5.60¢
Σ-sides: 100.80% (arb gap 0.80pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $587.95
Volume total: $48.13k
Open interest: $471.98k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-08-01T14:00:00Z · 47.9d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Trump's Executive Order ending birthright citizenship comes into effect for any period after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (526 bars · effective 350492 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 47.9 d · σ/bar 0.108pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.67ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0529 · n = 526✓ n = 526

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.108pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.53pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move48d

3.67pp

σ × √1149.4480972222223

Terminal variancebinary

0.0529

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

5.6¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.18pp · ES₉₅ 0.22pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.20pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 526

VaR 95%

0.18pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.22pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

34.4pp

peak 6.1¢ → trough 4.0¢

Median step

0.20pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

5.6%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

17.857

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1686

$100 wins $1686

FractionalUK

16.86 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1685.71

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.311 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.311 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.16 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.08 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:32:30 UTC
Snapshot age: 36.4s
SHA-256 attestation: 3428a320a525bb63a5db761b5e33a033cf3ba967266b696278c2f3c4036bc886 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 526 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.5K

Realized vol (annualised)

1292.80%

σ per bar = 0.021837

Mean return (annualised)

1202.92%

μ per bar = 0.000034

Sharpe (rf=0)

0.93

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

34.43%

peak 0.06 → trough 0.04 over 137 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kx14amendcase-26-aug/risk · same metrics, JSON