AURELIUS · LIVE ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITIES
ARB · Adaptive Multi-Route (AMR) opportunities
Cross-venue arbitrage signals — Σ-sides gaps, wide-spread synthetics, funding-rate carry — ranked by theoretical edge. Snapshot age: HL 3.7s · PM 4.8s.
🎯 CROSS-VENUE SPREADS · the moat
Same event priced differently on 2+ venues. 1 opportunities with ≥5pp spread, sorted by edge. Polymarket + Hyperliquid + Kalshi in the live pool. Tighter clustering (similarity 0.50) dropped the keyword-collision false positives that earlier versions surfaced.
#15.5pp gross4.0pp net2-venuealexandria · ocasio · cortez · 2028
🧮 Portfolio Simulatorequal-split · paper · no fees or slippage
Default $10.00K capital split equally across top-10 arb opportunities with spread ≤ 50.0pp. Profit per pair = spread; cost per pair = 1 − spread. Calibrate before live trading: this excludes fees, slippage, withdrawal latency, and settlement risk. Live JSON: /api/arb/sim?capital=10000
Per-venue exposure
| Venue | Capital | Share | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | $9.42K | 94.2% | |
| polymarket | $584 | 5.8% |
Selected opportunities (ranked)
| # | Topic | Buy @ | Sell @ | Spread | Allocated | Pairs | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | alexandria · ocasio · cortez | polymarket @ 5.5% | kalshi @ 11.0% | 5.5pp | $10.00K | 10520.8 | $363 |
Funding -0.078346%/h → -686.31%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding 0.064554%/h → +565.49%/yr. Longs pay shorts. Carry by holding short delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.015654%/h → -137.13%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.013225%/h → -115.86%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.013082%/h → -114.60%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.012617%/h → -110.53%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.010574%/h → -92.63%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.009368%/h → -82.06%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.007334%/h → -64.25%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.007219%/h → -63.24%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.007104%/h → -62.23%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.006978%/h → -61.13%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.006956%/h → -60.93%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.006432%/h → -56.35%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.005732%/h → -50.22%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.005090%/h → -44.59%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.004591%/h → -40.22%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.004157%/h → -36.41%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.003802%/h → -33.30%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.003577%/h → -31.34%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.003500%/h → -30.66%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.003252%/h → -28.49%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.003006%/h → -26.33%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002997%/h → -26.25%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding 0.002876%/h → +25.20%/yr. Longs pay shorts. Carry by holding short delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002411%/h → -21.12%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002392%/h → -20.95%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002289%/h → -20.05%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002166%/h → -18.97%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.001895%/h → -16.60%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.