KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ECONOMICS

Will average gas prices be above $4.050?

YES · live

99.0¢

NO · live

1.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxaaagasw-26jun15-4.050 · fresh · feed 12s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

155.99%

max drawdown

2.02%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

1.51%

RMS drawdown

pain index

1.25%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.17%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

2.02%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.25

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.25

upside/downside

roll spread

9.9 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

434

store

spread

100.5 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxaaagasw-26jun15-4.050/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING12.1s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

99.0¢

NO · live

1.0¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.081 / 1.00 bits (8%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

99.0%99.0¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp

1.0%1.0¢100.00×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

12.1s

·ticker

KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-4.050

▲YES bid

99.00¢

▲YES ask

100.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$75.2k

◐open interest $

$64.2k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-4.050
Event ticker: KXAAAGASW-26JUN15
YES bid / ask: 99.00¢ / 100.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 0.00¢ / 1.00¢
Last YES: 99.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.00% (arb gap 0.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $75.23k
Volume total: $82.63k
Open interest: $64.22k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-15T03:59:00Z · 0.5d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.050 on Jun 15, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (434 bars · effective 350734 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 0.5 d · σ/bar 0.263pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.93ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0099 · n = 434✓ n = 434

μ per bar

+0.005pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.263pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.29pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move1d

0.93pp

σ × √12.486438888888891

Terminal variancebinary

0.0099

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

99.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.43pp · ES₉₅ 0.54pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 434

VaR 95%

0.43pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.54pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

2.0pp

peak 99.0¢ → trough 97.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

99.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.010

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-9900

risk $9900 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.01 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1.01

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.081 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.081 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.01 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

6.64 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:29:36 UTC
Snapshot age: 12.1s
SHA-256 attestation: bbe6c1cb0a064c490d8246d65524c91270804ec9ad569a73b2d9d4e080e88c27 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 434 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

159.12%

σ per bar = 0.002687

Mean return (annualised)

1653.14%

μ per bar = 0.000047

Sharpe (rf=0)

10.39

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

2.02%

peak 0.99 → trough 0.97 over 6 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxaaagasw-26jun15-4.050/risk · same metrics, JSON