KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · CRYPTO

Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET?

YES · live

5.0¢

NO · live

94.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxbtcmax150-25-26dec31-149999.99 · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

84.00%

max drawdown

28.57%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

14.46%

RMS drawdown

pain index

12.23%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.15%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

28.57%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.67

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.67

upside/downside

roll spread

13.4 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

250

store

spread

1818.2 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxbtcmax150-25-26dec31-149999.99/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

5.0¢

NO · live

94.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.287 / 1.00 bits (29%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

5.0%5.0¢20.00×▬ +0.00pp

95.0%94.5¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2m

·ticker

KXBTCMAX150-25-26DEC31-149999.99

▲YES bid

5.00¢

▲YES ask

6.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$1.6k

◐open interest $

$260.0k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXBTCMAX150-25-26DEC31-149999.99
Event ticker: KXBTCMAX150-25
YES bid / ask: 5.00¢ / 6.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 94.00¢ / 95.00¢
Last YES: 5.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $1.62k
Volume total: $25.97k
Open interest: $260.02k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z · 200.6d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the price of Bitcoin is above || Count || by || Date || at || Time ||, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (250 bars · effective 350484 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 200.6 d · σ/bar 0.142pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 9.85ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0475 · n = 250✓ n = 250

μ per bar

-0.004pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.142pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.70pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move201d

9.85pp

σ × √4813.5712930555555

Terminal variancebinary

0.0475

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

5.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.24pp · ES₉₅ 0.30pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 250

VaR 95%

0.24pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.30pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

28.6pp

peak 7.0¢ → trough 5.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

5.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

20.000

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1900

$100 wins $1900

FractionalUK

19.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1900.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.286 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.286 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.32 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.07 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:23:33 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2m
SHA-256 attestation: 78dff5637218cb488c0c309f3baa4e22d4c778d0b8d2cd186ddace982239f17b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 250 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.5K

Realized vol (annualised)

1441.90%

σ per bar = 0.024356

Mean return (annualised)

-25662.98%

μ per bar = -0.000732

Sharpe (rf=0)

-17.80

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

28.57%

peak 0.07 → trough 0.05 over 166 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxbtcmax150-25-26dec31-149999.99/risk · same metrics, JSON