KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · CRYPTO

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?

YES · live

8.0¢

NO · live

91.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jun30-7500000 · fresh · feed 29s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

264.42%

max drawdown

55.56%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

26.23%

RMS drawdown

pain index

20.73%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.01%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

52.53%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.91

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.91

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

423

store

spread

1176.5 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jun30-7500000/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING29.1s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

8.0¢

NO · live

91.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.404 / 1.00 bits (40%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

8.0%8.0¢12.50×▬ +0.00pp

92.0%91.5¢1.09×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

29.1s

·ticker

KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUN30-7500000

▲YES bid

8.00¢

▲YES ask

9.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$3.9k

◐open interest $

$166.5k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUN30-7500000
Event ticker: KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUN30
YES bid / ask: 8.00¢ / 9.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 91.00¢ / 92.00¢
Last YES: 8.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $3.91k
Volume total: $26.02k
Open interest: $166.46k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-01T03:59:59Z · 16.5d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above $ 75000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (423 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 16.5 d · σ/bar 0.447pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 8.90ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0736 · n = 423✓ n = 423

μ per bar

-0.005pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.447pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

2.19pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move17d

8.90pp

σ × √396.64783750000004

Terminal variancebinary

0.0736

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

8.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.74pp · ES₉₅ 0.93pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 423

VaR 95%

0.74pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.93pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

55.6pp

peak 18.0¢ → trough 8.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

8.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

12.500

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1150

$100 wins $1150

FractionalUK

11.50 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1150.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.402 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.402 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.64 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.12 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:20:37 UTC
Snapshot age: 29.1s
SHA-256 attestation: 1af8682fecf0ada157499d98b1fceba6133e12338a66cc933ec477eda1ea116c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 423 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

2232.90%

σ per bar = 0.037707

Mean return (annualised)

-18542.04%

μ per bar = -0.000529

Sharpe (rf=0)

-8.30

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

55.56%

peak 0.18 → trough 0.08 over 98 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jun30-7500000/risk · same metrics, JSON