KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?

YES · live

29.0¢

NO · live

72.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxcitrini-28jul01 · fresh · feed 1s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

84.67%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

7.4 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

197

store

spread

363.6 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxcitrini-28jul01/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH829ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

29.0¢

NO · live

72.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 101.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 101.50% (1.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.863 / 1.00 bits (86%) · high uncertainty

YES

28.6%29.0¢3.45×▬ +0.00pp

71.4%72.5¢1.38×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 101.50% · arb gap 1.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

829ms

·ticker

KXCITRINI-28JUL01

▲YES bid

27.00¢

▲YES ask

28.00¢

ΣΣ sides

101.50%

⚖arb gap

1.500pp

$24h vol $

$266.9

◐open interest $

$190.1k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXCITRINI-28JUL01
Event ticker: KXCITRINI-28JUL01
YES bid / ask: 27.00¢ / 28.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 72.00¢ / 73.00¢
Last YES: 29.00¢
Σ-sides: 101.50% (arb gap 1.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $266.91
Volume total: $7.49M
Open interest: $190.14k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-07-01T14:00:00Z · 742.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (580 bars · effective 347440 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 742.1 d · σ/bar 0.372pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 49.65ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2059 · n = 580✓ n = 580

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.372pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.82pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move742d

49.65pp

σ × √17810.11362638889

Terminal variancebinary

0.2059

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

29.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.61pp · ES₉₅ 0.77pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 580

VaR 95%

0.61pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.77pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

15.6pp

peak 32.0¢ → trough 27.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

29.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

3.448

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+245

$100 wins $245

FractionalUK

2.45 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$244.83

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.869 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.869 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.79 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.49 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 11:53:10 UTC
Snapshot age: 829ms
SHA-256 attestation: 690b1752f9ba203c738774410a9c59cbfe4b3adf938e66b8d766ed5f27032b2a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 580 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.4K

Realized vol (annualised)

735.20%

σ per bar = 0.012473

Mean return (annualised)

0.00%

μ per bar = 0.000000

Sharpe (rf=0)

0.00

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

15.62%

peak 0.32 → trough 0.27 over 309 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxcitrini-28jul01/risk · same metrics, JSON