KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the F1 Drivers Championship?

YES · live

61.0¢

NO · live

39.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxf1-26-ka · STALE · feed 3m old

24h sparkline · 34 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

103.36%

max drawdown

1.61%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

1.41%

RMS drawdown

pain index

1.23%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.38%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

1.61%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.00

upside/downside

roll spread

10.4 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

165.3 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

data is stale (>2min old) — confidence dampened

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxf1-26-ka/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING3.1m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

61.0¢

NO · live

39.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.967 / 1.00 bits (97%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

60.7%61.0¢1.64×▬ +0.00pp

39.3%39.5¢2.53×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

3.1m

·ticker

KXF1-26-KA

▲YES bid

60.00¢

▲YES ask

61.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$4.6k

◐open interest $

$566.4k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXF1-26-KA
Event ticker: KXF1-26
YES bid / ask: 60.00¢ / 61.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 39.00¢ / 40.00¢
Last YES: 61.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $4.59k
Volume total: $616.09k
Open interest: $566.42k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-12-22T15:00:00Z · 185.3d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Andrea Kimi Antonelli wins the F1 Drivers Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (409 bars · effective 344260 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 185.3 d · σ/bar 1.151pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 76.79ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2379 · n = 409✓ n = 409

μ per bar

-0.029pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

1.151pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

5.64pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move185d

76.79pp

σ × √4447.211293611111

Terminal variancebinary

0.2379

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

61.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 1.92pp · ES₉₅ 2.40pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.029pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.05✓ n = 409

VaR 95%

1.92pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

2.40pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

28.0pp

peak 75.0¢ → trough 54.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

61.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.639

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-156

risk $156 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.64 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$63.93

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.965 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.965 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.71 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

1.36 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:44:11 UTC
Snapshot age: 3.1m
SHA-256 attestation: cd118a0e27bf1d2814798df3daa315467661202a2f7b4765c2113f5725653244 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 409 barsperiods/year ≈ 344.3K

Realized vol (annualised)

1074.27%

σ per bar = 0.018309

Mean return (annualised)

-15152.96%

μ per bar = -0.000440

Sharpe (rf=0)

-14.11

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

28.00%

peak 0.75 → trough 0.54 over 61 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxf1-26-ka/risk · same metrics, JSON