KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Max Verstappen win the F1 Drivers Championship?

YES · live

3.0¢

NO · live

97.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxf1-26-mv · fresh · feed 20s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%

realized vol (ann.)

87.59%

max drawdown

33.33%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

24.41%

RMS drawdown

pain index

17.87%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.11%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

33.33%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

733

store

spread

4000.0 bps

24h Δ

0.00%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxf1-26-mv/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING20.1s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

3.0¢

NO · live

97.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.194 / 1.00 bits (19%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

3.0%3.0¢33.33×▬ +0.00pp

97.0%97.5¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

20.1s

·ticker

KXF1-26-MV

▲YES bid

2.00¢

▲YES ask

3.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$531.5

◐open interest $

$550.8k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXF1-26-MV
Event ticker: KXF1-26
YES bid / ask: 2.00¢ / 3.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 97.00¢ / 98.00¢
Last YES: 3.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $531.49
Volume total: $27.61k
Open interest: $550.75k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-12-22T15:00:00Z · 191.0d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Max Verstappen wins the F1 Drivers Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (733 bars · effective 350776 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 191.0 d · σ/bar 0.148pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 10.02ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0291 · n = 733✓ n = 733

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.148pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.72pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move191d

10.02pp

σ × √4583.727293888889

Terminal variancebinary

0.0291

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

3.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.24pp · ES₉₅ 0.31pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 733

VaR 95%

0.24pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.31pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

33.3pp

peak 3.0¢ → trough 2.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

3.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

33.333

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+3233

$100 wins $3233

FractionalUK

32.33 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$3233.33

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.194 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.194 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

5.06 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.04 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:16:01 UTC
Snapshot age: 20.1s
SHA-256 attestation: 765010c0bd26358227faa45b63f2548d834353d3b579720ea2249956fb9dda94 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 733 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

3552.79%

σ per bar = 0.059987

Mean return (annualised)

0.00%

μ per bar = 0.000000

Sharpe (rf=0)

0.00

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

33.33%

peak 0.03 → trough 0.02 over 41 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxf1-26-mv/risk · same metrics, JSON