KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Charles Leclerc finish in first in the main race at the 2026 Barcelona Grand Prix?

YES · live

1.0¢

NO · live

99.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxf1race-bargp26-lec · fresh · feed 11s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

76.87%

max drawdown

50.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

36.65%

RMS drawdown

pain index

26.86%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.10%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

50.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.75

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.75

upside/downside

roll spread

33.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

417

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxf1race-bargp26-lec/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING10.7s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

1.0¢

NO · live

99.0¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.081 / 1.00 bits (8%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

1.0%1.0¢100.00×▬ +0.00pp

99.0%99.0¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

10.7s

·ticker

KXF1RACE-BARGP26-LEC

▲YES bid

0.00¢

▲YES ask

1.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$1.2k

◐open interest $

$158.5k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXF1RACE-BARGP26-LEC
Event ticker: KXF1RACE-BARGP26
YES bid / ask: 0.00¢ / 1.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 99.00¢ / 100.00¢
Last YES: 1.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.00% (arb gap 0.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $1.20k
Volume total: $1.83k
Open interest: $158.47k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-28T15:00:00Z · 14.0d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Charles Leclerc finishes in exactly first in the main race originally scheduled for June 14, 2026 at the 2026 Barcelona Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (417 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 14.0 d · σ/bar 0.130pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.38ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0099 · n = 417✓ n = 417

μ per bar

-0.002pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.130pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.64pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move14d

2.38pp

σ × √335.5035027777778

Terminal variancebinary

0.0099

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

1.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.22pp · ES₉₅ 0.27pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 417

VaR 95%

0.22pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.27pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

50.0pp

peak 2.0¢ → trough 1.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

1.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

100.000

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+9900

$100 wins $9900

FractionalUK

99.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$9900.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.081 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.081 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

6.64 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.01 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:29:36 UTC
Snapshot age: 10.7s
SHA-256 attestation: 9f51f9ef594d3b90de0f467d615c2f25c183ffebb156792c6a13a384670cbc3d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 417 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

5329.89%

σ per bar = 0.090007

Mean return (annualised)

-58427.56%

μ per bar = -0.001666

Sharpe (rf=0)

-10.96

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

50.00%

peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 17 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxf1race-bargp26-lec/risk · same metrics, JSON