KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?

YES · live

93.2¢

NO · live

7.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxgovflnomr-26-bd · fresh · feed 8s old

24h sparkline · 38 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

0.00%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

10.7 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxgovflnomr-26-bd/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH8.3s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

93.2¢

NO · live

7.0¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.15% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.15% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.364 / 1.00 bits (36%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

93.1%93.2¢1.07×▬ +0.00pp

6.9%7.0¢14.39×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.15% · arb gap 0.15pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

8.3s

·ticker

KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD

▲YES bid

93.00¢

▲YES ask

93.10¢

ΣΣ sides

100.15%

⚖arb gap

0.150pp

$24h vol $

$5.4k

◐open interest $

$469.5k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD
Event ticker: KXGOVFLNOMR-26
YES bid / ask: 93.00¢ / 93.10¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask: 6.90¢ / 7.00¢
Last YES: 93.20¢
Σ-sides: 100.15% (arb gap 0.15pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $5.44k
Volume total: $701.17k
Open interest: $469.45k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-11-03T15:00:00Z · 136.3d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Byron Donalds wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (387 bars · effective 347470 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 136.3 d · σ/bar 0.251pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 14.37ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0634 · n = 387✓ n = 387

μ per bar

+0.005pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.251pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.23pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move136d

14.37pp

σ × √3271.134413333333

Terminal variancebinary

0.0634

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

93.2¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.41pp · ES₉₅ 0.51pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.07✓ n = 387

VaR 95%

0.41pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.51pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

2.5pp

peak 95.2¢ → trough 92.8¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

93.2%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.073

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-1371

risk $1371 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.07 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$7.30

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.358 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.358 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.10 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

3.88 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:51:47 UTC
Snapshot age: 8.3s
SHA-256 attestation: c8853358b65047be8993bec1731dbaca28e92b428c6603a1b2071f47d7238cd2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 387 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.5K

Realized vol (annualised)

158.32%

σ per bar = 0.002686

Mean return (annualised)

1755.56%

μ per bar = 0.000051

Sharpe (rf=0)

11.09

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

2.52%

peak 0.95 → trough 0.93 over 137 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxgovflnomr-26-bd/risk · same metrics, JSON