KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?

YES · live

4.9¢

NO · live

94.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxgovflnomr-26-jfis · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -26.87%

realized vol (ann.)

128.61%

max drawdown

38.24%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

14.10%

RMS drawdown

pain index

11.50%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.26%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

31.68%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.90

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.90

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

742

store

spread

2105.3 bps

24h Δ

-26.87%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -26.87%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxgovflnomr-26-jfis/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.1m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

4.9¢

NO · live

94.3¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.20% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.20% (0.80pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.284 / 1.00 bits (28%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

4.9%4.9¢20.41×▬ +0.00pp

95.1%94.3¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.20% · arb gap 0.80pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.1m

·ticker

KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JFIS

▲YES bid

5.10¢

▲YES ask

6.30¢

ΣΣ sides

99.20%

⚖arb gap

0.800pp

$24h vol $

$3.4k

◐open interest $

$2.1M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JFIS
Event ticker: KXGOVFLNOMR-26
YES bid / ask: 5.10¢ / 6.30¢ (spread 1.20pp)
NO bid / ask: 93.70¢ / 94.90¢
Last YES: 4.90¢
Σ-sides: 99.20% (arb gap 0.80pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $3.39k
Volume total: $211.75k
Open interest: $2.09M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-11-03T15:00:00Z · 142.0d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If James Fishback wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (742 bars · effective 350776 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 142.0 d · σ/bar 0.217pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 12.68ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0466 · n = 742✓ n = 742

μ per bar

-0.002pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.217pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.06pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move142d

12.68pp

σ × √3407.4889

Terminal variancebinary

0.0466

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

4.9¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.36pp · ES₉₅ 0.45pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 742

VaR 95%

0.36pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.45pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

38.2pp

peak 6.8¢ → trough 4.2¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

4.9%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

20.408

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1941

$100 wins $1941

FractionalUK

19.41 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1940.82

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.282 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.282 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.35 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.07 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:29:36 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.1m
SHA-256 attestation: 9cb8e845e83ba4bb89b3741b89f3b3c3417182a809209ae72ec5810ba3330957 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 742 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

2382.44%

σ per bar = 0.040226

Mean return (annualised)

-14810.83%

μ per bar = -0.000422

Sharpe (rf=0)

-6.22

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

38.24%

peak 0.07 → trough 0.04 over 139 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxgovflnomr-26-jfis/risk · same metrics, JSON