KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will Trump buy Greenland?

YES · live

23.0¢

NO · live

76.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxgreenland-29 · fresh · feed 53s old

24h sparkline · 36 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

301.09%

max drawdown

11.54%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

10.18%

RMS drawdown

pain index

8.97%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

1.08%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

11.54%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.00

upside/downside

roll spread

75.7 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

425.5 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxgreenland-29/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING53.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

23.0¢

NO · live

76.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.780 / 1.00 bits (78%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

23.1%23.0¢4.35×▬ +0.00pp

76.9%76.5¢1.31×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

53.2s

·ticker

KXGREENLAND-29

▲YES bid

23.00¢

▲YES ask

24.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$145.5

◐open interest $

$341.1k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXGREENLAND-29
Event ticker: KXGREENLAND-29
YES bid / ask: 23.00¢ / 24.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 76.00¢ / 77.00¢
Last YES: 23.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $145.50
Volume total: $784.87k
Open interest: $341.11k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2029-01-20T15:00:00Z · 945.3d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (416 bars · effective 344125 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 945.3 d · σ/bar 0.716pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 107.78ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1771 · n = 416✓ n = 416

μ per bar

-0.005pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.716pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

3.51pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move945d

107.78pp

σ × √22687.171370833334

Terminal variancebinary

0.1771

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

23.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 1.18pp · ES₉₅ 1.48pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 416

VaR 95%

1.18pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

1.48pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

19.2pp

peak 26.0¢ → trough 21.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

23.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

4.348

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+335

$100 wins $335

FractionalUK

3.35 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$334.78

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.778 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.778 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

2.12 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.38 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:48:49 UTC
Snapshot age: 53.2s
SHA-256 attestation: 7bd77386c733faa8ff2a054407911d3900762d1c0da2d66cbe8143c11583600a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 416 barsperiods/year ≈ 344.1K

Realized vol (annualised)

1816.95%

σ per bar = 0.030973

Mean return (annualised)

-6914.14%

μ per bar = -0.000201

Sharpe (rf=0)

-3.81

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

19.23%

peak 0.26 → trough 0.21 over 6 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxgreenland-29/risk · same metrics, JSON