KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?

YES · live

13.0¢

NO · live

86.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260701 · fresh · feed 11s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -40.91%

realized vol (ann.)

335.66%

max drawdown

52.17%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

25.25%

RMS drawdown

pain index

23.27%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.71%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

46.44%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.88

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.88

upside/downside

roll spread

201.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

739

store

spread

740.7 bps

24h Δ

-40.91%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -40.91%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260701/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING10.6s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

13.0¢

NO · live

86.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.559 / 1.00 bits (56%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

13.1%13.0¢7.69×▬ +0.00pp

86.9%86.5¢1.16×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

10.6s

·ticker

KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701

▲YES bid

13.00¢

▲YES ask

14.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$20.9k

◐open interest $

$2.1M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701
Event ticker: KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17
YES bid / ask: 13.00¢ / 14.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 86.00¢ / 87.00¢
Last YES: 13.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $20.93k
Volume total: $592.37k
Open interest: $2.07M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-07T13:59:00Z · 22.9d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (739 bars · effective 350734 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 22.9 d · σ/bar 0.567pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 13.30ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1131 · n = 739✓ n = 739

μ per bar

-0.012pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.567pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

2.78pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move23d

13.30pp

σ × √550.5623825

Terminal variancebinary

0.1131

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

13.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.94pp · ES₉₅ 1.18pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.012pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 739

VaR 95%

0.94pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

1.18pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

52.2pp

peak 23.0¢ → trough 11.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

13.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

7.692

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+669

$100 wins $669

FractionalUK

6.69 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$669.23

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.557 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.557 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

2.94 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.20 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:25:04 UTC
Snapshot age: 10.6s
SHA-256 attestation: c5664cb0b74ff63902d85df09bd133e96092aafac14a23d9c61c510b626fe63d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 739 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

2079.81%

σ per bar = 0.035118

Mean return (annualised)

-25002.51%

μ per bar = -0.000713

Sharpe (rf=0)

-12.02

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

52.17%

peak 0.23 → trough 0.11 over 668 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260701/risk · same metrics, JSON