KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?

YES · live

45.0¢

NO · live

54.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260801 · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -13.46%

realized vol (ann.)

791.07%

max drawdown

41.51%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

10.26%

RMS drawdown

pain index

8.38%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.49%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

23.17%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.94

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.94

upside/downside

roll spread

172.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

743

store

spread

219.8 bps

24h Δ

-13.46%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -13.46%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260801/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

45.0¢

NO · live

54.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.993 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

45.2%45.0¢2.22×▬ +0.00pp

54.8%54.5¢1.83×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2m

·ticker

KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801

▲YES bid

45.00¢

▲YES ask

46.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$63.9k

◐open interest $

$927.2k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
Event ticker: KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17
YES bid / ask: 45.00¢ / 46.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 54.00¢ / 55.00¢
Last YES: 45.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $63.93k
Volume total: $926.08k
Open interest: $927.19k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-08-01T13:59:00Z · 47.9d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (743 bars · effective 350734 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 47.9 d · σ/bar 1.336pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 45.32ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2475 · n = 743✓ n = 743

μ per bar

-0.009pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

1.336pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

6.55pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move48d

45.32pp

σ × √1150.4443891666665

Terminal variancebinary

0.2475

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

45.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 2.21pp · ES₉₅ 2.76pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.009pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 743

VaR 95%

2.21pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

2.76pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

41.5pp

peak 53.0¢ → trough 31.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

45.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

2.222

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+122

$100 wins $122

FractionalUK

1.22 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$122.22

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.993 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.993 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.15 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.86 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:31:07 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2m
SHA-256 attestation: 0bdde7326940cfb01b31723d6bf47ce2b8b7bab06543db2e07689f1a658fa0b5 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 743 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

1987.37%

σ per bar = 0.033557

Mean return (annualised)

-6834.16%

μ per bar = -0.000195

Sharpe (rf=0)

-3.44

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

41.51%

peak 0.53 → trough 0.31 over 266 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260801/risk · same metrics, JSON