KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?

YES · live

78.0¢

NO · live

19.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270101 · fresh · feed 2s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.63%

realized vol (ann.)

177.65%

max drawdown

7.50%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

5.48%

RMS drawdown

pain index

5.12%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

6.27%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.13

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.13

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

735

store

spread

372.7 bps

24h Δ

2.63%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change +2.63%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270101/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

78.0¢

NO · live

19.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

ARB GAP 2.50pp

Σ-sides total = 97.50% (2.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.722 / 1.00 bits (72%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

80.0%78.0¢1.28×▬ +0.00pp

20.0%19.5¢5.13×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 97.50% · arb gap 2.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.8s

·ticker

KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101

▲YES bid

79.00¢

▲YES ask

82.00¢

ΣΣ sides

97.50%

⚖arb gap

2.500pp

$24h vol $

$33.0k

◐open interest $

$393.6k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Event ticker: KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17
YES bid / ask: 79.00¢ / 82.00¢ (spread 3.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 18.00¢ / 21.00¢
Last YES: 78.00¢
Σ-sides: 97.50% (arb gap 2.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $32.96k
Volume total: $541.12k
Open interest: $393.63k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-01-01T14:59:00Z · 201.0d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (735 bars · effective 350734 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 201.0 d · σ/bar 0.300pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 20.84ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1716 · n = 735✓ n = 735

μ per bar

+0.003pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.300pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.47pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move201d

20.84pp

σ × √4823.564846944445

Terminal variancebinary

0.1716

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

78.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.49pp · ES₉₅ 0.62pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 735

VaR 95%

0.49pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.62pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

7.5pp

peak 80.0¢ → trough 74.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

78.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.282

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-355

risk $355 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.28 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$28.21

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.760 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.760 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.36 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

2.18 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:25:04 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.8s
SHA-256 attestation: b8ded83311c2d9f149653d38deddff0655abab1060fe51c22f960ca6f665b5f7 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 735 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

228.82%

σ per bar = 0.003864

Mean return (annualised)

1241.21%

μ per bar = 0.000035

Sharpe (rf=0)

5.42

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

7.50%

peak 0.80 → trough 0.74 over 629 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270101/risk · same metrics, JSON