KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Restore Britain win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

YES · live

1.0¢

NO · live

99.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmakerfieldby-27jan01-res · fresh · feed 44s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -50.00%

realized vol (ann.)

47.21%

max drawdown

50.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

27.65%

RMS drawdown

pain index

15.29%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

50.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.67

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.67

upside/downside

roll spread

15.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

788

store

spread

—

24h Δ

-50.00%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -50.00%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmakerfieldby-27jan01-res/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING43.8s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

1.0¢

NO · live

99.0¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.081 / 1.00 bits (8%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

1.0%1.0¢100.00×▬ +0.00pp

99.0%99.0¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

43.8s

·ticker

KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-RES

▲YES bid

0.00¢

▲YES ask

1.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$858.9

◐open interest $

$424.3k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-RES
Event ticker: KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01
YES bid / ask: 0.00¢ / 1.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 99.00¢ / 100.00¢
Last YES: 1.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.00% (arb gap 0.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $858.91
Volume total: $4.66k
Open interest: $424.25k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-01-01T15:00:00Z · 565.9d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the Restore Britain party wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (788 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 565.9 d · σ/bar 0.080pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 9.29ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0099 · n = 788✓ n = 788

μ per bar

-0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.080pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.39pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move566d

9.29pp

σ × √13582.345982222221

Terminal variancebinary

0.0099

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

1.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.13pp · ES₉₅ 0.17pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 788

VaR 95%

0.13pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.17pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

50.0pp

peak 2.0¢ → trough 1.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

1.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

100.000

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+9900

$100 wins $9900

FractionalUK

99.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$9900.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.081 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.081 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

6.64 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.01 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:38:30 UTC
Snapshot age: 43.8s
SHA-256 attestation: 82592be7b63d14076c3ad02f5c63b582ef32884c6047d594d7aee6ca4e4a995d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 788 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

3273.31%

σ per bar = 0.055277

Mean return (annualised)

-30884.20%

μ per bar = -0.000881

Sharpe (rf=0)

-9.44

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

50.00%

peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 50 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmakerfieldby-27jan01-res/risk · same metrics, JSON