KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will the Spain win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

YES · live

16.7¢

NO · live

83.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmenworldcup-26-es · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

167.80%

max drawdown

15.43%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

7.73%

RMS drawdown

pain index

6.21%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.36%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

14.85%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

206.5 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

532

store

spread

181.3 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-es/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.4m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

16.7¢

NO · live

83.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.15% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.15% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.650 / 1.00 bits (65%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

16.7%16.7¢5.99×▬ +0.00pp

83.3%83.5¢1.20×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.15% · arb gap 0.15pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.4m

·ticker

KXMENWORLDCUP-26-ES

▲YES bid

16.40¢

▲YES ask

16.70¢

ΣΣ sides

100.15%

⚖arb gap

0.150pp

$24h vol $

$155.3k

◐open interest $

$8.3M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26-ES
Event ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26
YES bid / ask: 16.40¢ / 16.70¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask: 83.30¢ / 83.60¢
Last YES: 16.70¢
Σ-sides: 100.15% (arb gap 0.15pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $155.33k
Volume total: $1.63M
Open interest: $8.27M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-07-18T14:00:00Z · 765.2d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Spain wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (532 bars · effective 350788 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 765.2 d · σ/bar 0.283pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 38.41ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1391 · n = 532✓ n = 532

μ per bar

-0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.283pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.39pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move765d

38.41pp

σ × √18363.691605555556

Terminal variancebinary

0.1391

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

16.7¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.47pp · ES₉₅ 0.58pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 532

VaR 95%

0.47pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.58pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

15.4pp

peak 18.8¢ → trough 15.9¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

16.7%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

5.988

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+499

$100 wins $499

FractionalUK

4.99 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$498.80

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.651 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.651 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

2.58 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.26 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 10:17:03 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.4m
SHA-256 attestation: 9f4f11c8014310930cd07721d0d1d48eacdfc55eca6ab7a3fb56146b5e3ce2d8 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 532 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

1004.13%

σ per bar = 0.016954

Mean return (annualised)

-394.40%

μ per bar = -0.000011

Sharpe (rf=0)

-0.39

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

15.43%

peak 0.19 → trough 0.16 over 145 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-es/risk · same metrics, JSON