KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will the Netherlands win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

YES · live

5.8¢

NO · live

94.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmenworldcup-26-nl · fresh · feed 9s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

35.23%

max drawdown

8.06%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

4.79%

RMS drawdown

pain index

3.74%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.08%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

6.55%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

138.9 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

533

store

spread

173.9 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-nl/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.3s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

5.8¢

NO · live

94.2¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.05% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.05% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.319 / 1.00 bits (32%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

5.8%5.8¢17.24×▬ +0.00pp

94.2%94.2¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.05% · arb gap 0.05pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

9.3s

·ticker

KXMENWORLDCUP-26-NL

▲YES bid

5.70¢

▲YES ask

5.80¢

ΣΣ sides

100.05%

⚖arb gap

0.050pp

$24h vol $

$84.9k

◐open interest $

$11.3M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26-NL
Event ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26
YES bid / ask: 5.70¢ / 5.80¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask: 94.20¢ / 94.30¢
Last YES: 5.80¢
Σ-sides: 100.05% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $84.91k
Volume total: $731.03k
Open interest: $11.29M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-07-18T14:00:00Z · 765.2d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Netherlands wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (533 bars · effective 350784 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 765.2 d · σ/bar 0.060pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 8.06ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0546 · n = 533✓ n = 533

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.060pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.29pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move765d

8.06pp

σ × √18363.6880225

Terminal variancebinary

0.0546

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

5.8¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.10pp · ES₉₅ 0.12pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 533

VaR 95%

0.10pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.12pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

8.1pp

peak 6.2¢ → trough 5.7¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

5.8%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

17.241

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1624

$100 wins $1624

FractionalUK

16.24 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1624.14

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.319 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.319 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.11 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.09 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 10:18:33 UTC
Snapshot age: 9.3s
SHA-256 attestation: f448d17dfb6c86354555a9538f14e220744f8ce11c22d48cd4e7072f971504d3 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 533 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

604.44%

σ per bar = 0.010206

Mean return (annualised)

0.00%

μ per bar = 0.000000

Sharpe (rf=0)

0.00

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

8.06%

peak 0.06 → trough 0.06 over 6 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-nl/risk · same metrics, JSON