KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will the USA win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

YES · live

3.7¢

NO · live

96.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmenworldcup-26-us · fresh · feed 10s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

123.63%

max drawdown

28.21%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

8.25%

RMS drawdown

pain index

6.45%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.33%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

16.59%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

805.9 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

532

store

spread

274.0 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-us/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING10.1s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

3.7¢

NO · live

96.4¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.05% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.05% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.228 / 1.00 bits (23%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

3.7%3.7¢27.03×▬ +0.00pp

96.3%96.4¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.05% · arb gap 0.05pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

10.1s

·ticker

KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US

▲YES bid

3.60¢

▲YES ask

3.70¢

ΣΣ sides

100.05%

⚖arb gap

0.050pp

$24h vol $

$99.9k

◐open interest $

$16.0M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US
Event ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26
YES bid / ask: 3.60¢ / 3.70¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask: 96.30¢ / 96.40¢
Last YES: 3.70¢
Σ-sides: 100.05% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $99.90k
Volume total: $691.76k
Open interest: $15.95M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-07-18T14:00:00Z · 765.2d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If USA wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (532 bars · effective 350788 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 765.2 d · σ/bar 0.209pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 28.30ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0356 · n = 532✓ n = 532

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.209pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.02pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move765d

28.30pp

σ × √18363.71292388889

Terminal variancebinary

0.0356

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

3.7¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.34pp · ES₉₅ 0.43pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 532

VaR 95%

0.34pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.43pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

28.2pp

peak 3.9¢ → trough 2.8¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

3.7%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

27.027

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+2603

$100 wins $2603

FractionalUK

26.03 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$2602.70

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.228 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.228 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.76 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.05 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 10:17:03 UTC
Snapshot age: 10.1s
SHA-256 attestation: 5f5bc237742292d48ed07c43b5357a046daf17a5d03ae4bc5459ce0365db2ac2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 532 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

3591.35%

σ per bar = 0.060637

Mean return (annualised)

1810.03%

μ per bar = 0.000052

Sharpe (rf=0)

0.50

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

28.21%

peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 194 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-us/risk · same metrics, JSON