KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Milwaukee win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

YES · live

7.9¢

NO · live

92.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmlb-26-mil · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

38.59%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

12.2 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

192

store

spread

402.7 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmlb-26-mil/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.3m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

7.9¢

NO · live

92.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.45% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.45% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.397 / 1.00 bits (40%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

7.9%7.9¢12.66×▬ +0.00pp

92.1%92.5¢1.08×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.45% · arb gap 0.45pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.3m

·ticker

KXMLB-26-MIL

▲YES bid

7.30¢

▲YES ask

7.60¢

ΣΣ sides

100.45%

⚖arb gap

0.450pp

$24h vol $

$377.6

◐open interest $

$813.5k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMLB-26-MIL
Event ticker: KXMLB-26
YES bid / ask: 7.30¢ / 7.60¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask: 92.40¢ / 92.70¢
Last YES: 7.90¢
Σ-sides: 100.45% (arb gap 0.45pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $377.64
Volume total: $79.26k
Open interest: $813.51k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-10-31T04:00:00Z · 863.7d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Milwaukee wins the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (575 bars · effective 347249 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 863.7 d · σ/bar 0.266pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 38.30ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0728 · n = 575✓ n = 575

μ per bar

+0.002pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.266pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.30pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move864d

38.30pp

σ × √20728.23975027778

Terminal variancebinary

0.0728

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

7.9¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.44pp · ES₉₅ 0.55pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 575

VaR 95%

0.44pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.55pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

28.6pp

peak 7.0¢ → trough 5.0¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

7.9%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

12.658

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1166

$100 wins $1166

FractionalUK

11.66 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1165.82

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.399 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.399 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.66 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.12 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 11:44:20 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.3m
SHA-256 attestation: c4cf17c95322b3835d0876bc8eb2c0807d966aac0462eab31923cef6fa50b3bb · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 575 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.2K

Realized vol (annualised)

2441.88%

σ per bar = 0.041439

Mean return (annualised)

9070.82%

μ per bar = 0.000261

Sharpe (rf=0)

3.71

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

28.57%

peak 0.07 → trough 0.05 over 4 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmlb-26-mil/risk · same metrics, JSON