KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Miami vs Pittsburgh Winner?

YES · live

42.0¢

NO · live

58.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmlbgame-26jun141215miapit-mia · fresh · feed 17s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

191.91%

max drawdown

15.56%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

1.46%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.25%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.22%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.25%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.07

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.07

upside/downside

roll spread

24.2 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

411

store

spread

241.0 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmlbgame-26jun141215miapit-mia/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING16.7s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

42.0¢

NO · live

58.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.980 / 1.00 bits (98%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

41.8%42.0¢2.38×▬ +0.00pp

58.2%58.5¢1.71×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

16.7s

·ticker

KXMLBGAME-26JUN141215MIAPIT-MIA

▲YES bid

41.00¢

▲YES ask

42.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$339.1k

◐open interest $

$928.4k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMLBGAME-26JUN141215MIAPIT-MIA
Event ticker: KXMLBGAME-26JUN141215MIAPIT
YES bid / ask: 41.00¢ / 42.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 58.00¢ / 59.00¢
Last YES: 42.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $339.10k
Volume total: $421.41k
Open interest: $928.43k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-17T16:15:00Z · 3.0d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Miami wins the Miami vs Pittsburgh professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026 at 12:15 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (411 bars · effective 350484 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 3.0 d · σ/bar 0.324pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.75ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2436 · n = 411✓ n = 411

μ per bar

+0.002pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.324pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.59pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move3d

2.75pp

σ × √71.67692555555556

Terminal variancebinary

0.2436

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

42.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.53pp · ES₉₅ 0.67pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 411

VaR 95%

0.53pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.67pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

15.6pp

peak 45.0¢ → trough 38.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

42.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

2.381

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+138

$100 wins $138

FractionalUK

1.38 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$138.10

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.981 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.981 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.25 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.79 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:34:06 UTC
Snapshot age: 16.7s
SHA-256 attestation: f48526ba43a14651c89a6ff7ef9ad9b86f43017b34130ca25b15b22d8752d478 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 411 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.5K

Realized vol (annualised)

464.77%

σ per bar = 0.007851

Mean return (annualised)

2059.95%

μ per bar = 0.000059

Sharpe (rf=0)

4.43

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

15.56%

peak 0.45 → trough 0.38 over 4 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmlbgame-26jun141215miapit-mia/risk · same metrics, JSON