KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Atlanta vs New York M Winner?

YES · live

47.0¢

NO · live

53.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmlbgame-26jun141340atlnym-atl · fresh · feed 6s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

89.82%

max drawdown

6.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

1.72%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.67%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.18%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

4.76%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.67

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.67

upside/downside

roll spread

33.8 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

436

store

spread

215.1 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmlbgame-26jun141340atlnym-atl/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

47.0¢

NO · live

53.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.997 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

46.8%47.0¢2.13×▬ +0.00pp

53.2%53.5¢1.87×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

6.2s

·ticker

KXMLBGAME-26JUN141340ATLNYM-ATL

▲YES bid

46.00¢

▲YES ask

47.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$177.6k

◐open interest $

$323.5k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMLBGAME-26JUN141340ATLNYM-ATL
Event ticker: KXMLBGAME-26JUN141340ATLNYM
YES bid / ask: 46.00¢ / 47.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 53.00¢ / 54.00¢
Last YES: 47.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $177.60k
Volume total: $179.79k
Open interest: $323.49k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-17T17:40:00Z · 3.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Atlanta wins the Atlanta vs New York M professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026 at 1:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (436 bars · effective 350734 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 3.1 d · σ/bar 0.152pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.31ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2491 · n = 436✓ n = 436

μ per bar

-0.005pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.152pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.74pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move3d

1.31pp

σ × √74.29613083333334

Terminal variancebinary

0.2491

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

47.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.25pp · ES₉₅ 0.32pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 436

VaR 95%

0.25pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.32pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

6.0pp

peak 50.0¢ → trough 47.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

47.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

2.128

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+113

$100 wins $113

FractionalUK

1.13 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$112.77

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.997 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.997 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.09 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.92 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:22:07 UTC
Snapshot age: 6.2s
SHA-256 attestation: 0d1685f22b83d2d8d5e6278f5d9d90fda9d7c56648e5f920593c330c33349cd8 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 436 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

184.18%

σ per bar = 0.003110

Mean return (annualised)

-3360.00%

μ per bar = -0.000096

Sharpe (rf=0)

-18.24

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

6.00%

peak 0.50 → trough 0.47 over 280 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmlbgame-26jun141340atlnym-atl/risk · same metrics, JSON