KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · FINANCIALS

Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

YES · live

9.0¢

NO · live

92.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-t19000 · fresh · feed 20s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

0.00%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

687

store

spread

2500.0 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-t19000/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING20.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

9.0¢

NO · live

92.0¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 101.00% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 101.00% (1.00pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.433 / 1.00 bits (43%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

8.9%9.0¢11.11×▬ +0.00pp

91.1%92.0¢1.09×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 101.00% · arb gap 1.00pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

20.2s

·ticker

KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T19000

▲YES bid

7.00¢

▲YES ask

9.00¢

ΣΣ sides

101.00%

⚖arb gap

1.000pp

$24h vol $

$193.9

◐open interest $

$995.8k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T19000
Event ticker: KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600
YES bid / ask: 7.00¢ / 9.00¢ (spread 2.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 91.00¢ / 93.00¢
Last YES: 9.00¢
Σ-sides: 101.00% (arb gap 1.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $193.92
Volume total: $101.21k
Open interest: $995.78k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-12-31T21:00:00Z · 200.3d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 19000, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (687 bars · effective 350788 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 200.3 d · σ/bar 0.000pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.00ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0819 · n = 687✓ n = 687

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.000pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.00pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move200d

0.00pp

σ × √4806.875877777778

Terminal variancebinary

0.0819

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

9.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.00pp · ES₉₅ 0.00pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 687

VaR 95%

0.00pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.00pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

0.0pp

peak 9.0¢ → trough 9.0¢

Median step

0.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

9.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

11.111

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1011

$100 wins $1011

FractionalUK

10.11 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1011.11

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.436 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.436 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.47 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.14 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 14:07:06 UTC
Snapshot age: 20.2s
SHA-256 attestation: ce4819e737d7b140e8b4eef7ba7f7f41e6541e2a50feb0c5a9735eb2b8480981 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 687 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

0.00%

σ per bar = 0.000000

Mean return (annualised)

0.00%

μ per bar = 0.000000

Sharpe (rf=0)

0.00

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

0.00%

peak 0.09 → trough 0.09 over 0 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-t19000/risk · same metrics, JSON