KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Who will be picked first in the Pro Men's Basketball Draft?

YES · live

70.0¢

NO · live

28.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxnbadraft1-26-adyb · fresh · feed 14s old

24h sparkline · 39 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

385.30%

max drawdown

5.41%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.87%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.14%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

1.35%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.14%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

139.9 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxnbadraft1-26-adyb/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING14.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

70.0¢

NO · live

28.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 98.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 98.50% (1.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.868 / 1.00 bits (87%) · high uncertainty

YES

71.1%70.0¢1.43×▬ +0.00pp

28.9%28.5¢3.51×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 98.50% · arb gap 1.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

14.2s

·ticker

KXNBADRAFT1-26-ADYB

▲YES bid

71.00¢

▲YES ask

72.00¢

ΣΣ sides

98.50%

⚖arb gap

1.500pp

$24h vol $

$33.2k

◐open interest $

$544.4k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXNBADRAFT1-26-ADYB
Event ticker: KXNBADRAFT1-26
YES bid / ask: 71.00¢ / 72.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 28.00¢ / 29.00¢
Last YES: 70.00¢
Σ-sides: 98.50% (arb gap 1.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $33.19k
Volume total: $600.01k
Open interest: $544.39k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-07T14:00:00Z · 17.3d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If AJ Dybantsa is selected as the Pro Men's Basketball first overall pick in the Pro Men's Basketball draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (370 bars · effective 348333 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 17.3 d · σ/bar 1.263pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 25.71ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2100 · n = 370✓ n = 370

μ per bar

-0.038pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

1.263pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

6.19pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move17d

25.71pp

σ × √414.10991861111114

Terminal variancebinary

0.2100

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

70.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 2.12pp · ES₉₅ 2.64pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.038pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.05✓ n = 370

VaR 95%

2.12pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

2.64pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

24.7pp

peak 93.0¢ → trough 70.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

70.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.429

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-233

risk $233 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.43 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$42.86

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.881 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.881 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.51 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

1.74 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:53:10 UTC
Snapshot age: 14.2s
SHA-256 attestation: f73a3654f4e7e32f1b13806837ac9e2e2d062a90f9e83b72530084f05ca8d5b3 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 370 barsperiods/year ≈ 348.3K

Realized vol (annualised)

903.73%

σ per bar = 0.015312

Mean return (annualised)

-17211.02%

μ per bar = -0.000494

Sharpe (rf=0)

-19.04

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

24.73%

peak 0.93 → trough 0.70 over 27 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxnbadraft1-26-adyb/risk · same metrics, JSON