KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · COMPANIES

Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?

YES · live

4.0¢

NO · live

95.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpahlavihead-27jan-rpah · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 39 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

0.00%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

2222.2 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpahlavihead-27jan-rpah/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.4m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

4.0¢

NO · live

95.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.243 / 1.00 bits (24%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

4.0%4.0¢25.00×▬ +0.00pp

96.0%95.5¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.4m

·ticker

KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH

▲YES bid

4.00¢

▲YES ask

5.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$19.3

◐open interest $

$530.5k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
Event ticker: KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN
YES bid / ask: 4.00¢ / 5.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 95.00¢ / 96.00¢
Last YES: 4.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $19.35
Volume total: $68.01k
Open interest: $530.54k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z · 195.3d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (422 bars · effective 344125 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 195.3 d · σ/bar 0.338pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 23.14ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0384 · n = 422✓ n = 422

μ per bar

-0.005pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.338pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.66pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move195d

23.14pp

σ × √4687.090543888889

Terminal variancebinary

0.0384

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

4.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.56pp · ES₉₅ 0.70pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 422

VaR 95%

0.56pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.70pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

42.9pp

peak 7.0¢ → trough 4.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

4.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

25.000

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+2400

$100 wins $2400

FractionalUK

24.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$2400.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.242 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.242 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.64 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.06 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:53:10 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.4m
SHA-256 attestation: 1e8d4cbcfb32b4e26147b9ef02b1ce3a5ee16505dab763f75540c579f7a8ba03 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 422 barsperiods/year ≈ 344.1K

Realized vol (annualised)

3510.40%

σ per bar = 0.059841

Mean return (annualised)

-33142.64%

μ per bar = -0.000963

Sharpe (rf=0)

-9.44

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

42.86%

peak 0.07 → trough 0.04 over 122 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpahlavihead-27jan-rpah/risk · same metrics, JSON