KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?

YES · live

10.0¢

NO · live

90.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpahlavivisita-27jan01 · fresh · feed 20s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.01%

realized vol (ann.)

54.39%

max drawdown

17.27%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

11.51%

RMS drawdown

pain index

8.61%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

17.27%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.04

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.04

upside/downside

roll spread

0.3 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

745

store

spread

631.6 bps

24h Δ

1.01%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change +1.01%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpahlavivisita-27jan01/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING19.6s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

10.0¢

NO · live

90.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.467 / 1.00 bits (47%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

10.0%10.0¢10.00×▬ +0.00pp

90.0%90.5¢1.10×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

19.6s

·ticker

KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01

▲YES bid

9.20¢

▲YES ask

9.80¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$809.7

◐open interest $

$557.3k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
Event ticker: KXPAHLAVIVISITA
YES bid / ask: 9.20¢ / 9.80¢ (spread 0.60pp)
NO bid / ask: 90.20¢ / 90.80¢
Last YES: 10.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $809.67
Volume total: $132.87k
Open interest: $557.26k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z · 201.0d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Reza Pahlavi has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (745 bars · effective 350734 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 201.0 d · σ/bar 0.092pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.38ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0900 · n = 745✓ n = 745

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.092pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.45pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move201d

6.38pp

σ × √4823.427072777778

Terminal variancebinary

0.0900

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

10.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.15pp · ES₉₅ 0.19pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 745

VaR 95%

0.15pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.19pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

17.3pp

peak 11.0¢ → trough 9.1¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

10.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

10.000

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+900

$100 wins $900

FractionalUK

9.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$900.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.469 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.469 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.32 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.15 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:34:02 UTC
Snapshot age: 19.6s
SHA-256 attestation: c3698d176a2f05b981118eadd7bcb89374521c6340138fc829ada50f6afb7734 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 745 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

546.35%

σ per bar = 0.009225

Mean return (annualised)

473.79%

μ per bar = 0.000014

Sharpe (rf=0)

0.87

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

17.27%

peak 0.11 → trough 0.09 over 132 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpahlavivisita-27jan01/risk · same metrics, JSON