KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Sahith Theegala win the RBC Canadian Open?

YES · live

1.4¢

NO · live

98.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpgatour-rbbcan26-sthe · fresh · feed 14s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

40.13%

max drawdown

37.50%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

15.73%

RMS drawdown

pain index

13.81%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.10%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

28.93%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.08

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.08

upside/downside

roll spread

368.7 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

631

store

spread

2400.0 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpgatour-rbbcan26-sthe/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING13.9s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

1.4¢

NO · live

98.8¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.15% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.15% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.106 / 1.00 bits (11%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

1.4%1.4¢71.43×▬ +0.00pp

98.6%98.8¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.15% · arb gap 0.15pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

13.9s

·ticker

KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26-STHE

▲YES bid

1.10¢

▲YES ask

1.40¢

ΣΣ sides

100.15%

⚖arb gap

0.150pp

$24h vol $

$5.3k

◐open interest $

$927.1k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26-STHE
Event ticker: KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26
YES bid / ask: 1.10¢ / 1.40¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask: 98.60¢ / 98.90¢
Last YES: 1.40¢
Σ-sides: 100.15% (arb gap 0.15pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $5.26k
Volume total: $18.36k
Open interest: $927.12k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-28T04:00:00Z · 13.6d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Sahith Theegala wins the RBC Canadian Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (631 bars · effective 350788 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 13.6 d · σ/bar 0.068pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.23ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0138 · n = 631✓ n = 631

μ per bar

+0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.068pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.33pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move14d

1.23pp

σ × √327.2265297222222

Terminal variancebinary

0.0138

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

1.4¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.11pp · ES₉₅ 0.14pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 631

VaR 95%

0.11pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.14pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

37.5pp

peak 1.6¢ → trough 1.0¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

1.4%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

71.429

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+7043

$100 wins $7043

FractionalUK

70.43 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$7042.86

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.106 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.106 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

6.16 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.02 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 12:46:10 UTC
Snapshot age: 13.9s
SHA-256 attestation: 4abc83a0459ab34dc3988a513e86ec51a8052e89cca912f26c0f5ee58c4d6077 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 631 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

3151.22%

σ per bar = 0.053206

Mean return (annualised)

24601.54%

μ per bar = 0.000701

Sharpe (rf=0)

7.81

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

37.50%

peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 16 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpgatour-rbbcan26-sthe/risk · same metrics, JSON