KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Aaron Rai win the U.S. Open?

YES · live

0.6¢

NO · live

99.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpgatour-uso26-arai · fresh · feed 14s old

24h sparkline · 39 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

0.00%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

1818.2 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpgatour-uso26-arai/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING13.5s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

0.6¢

NO · live

99.4¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.05% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.05% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.053 / 1.00 bits (5%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

0.6%0.6¢166.67×▬ +0.00pp

99.4%99.4¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.05% · arb gap 0.05pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

13.5s

·ticker

KXPGATOUR-USO26-ARAI

▲YES bid

0.50¢

▲YES ask

0.60¢

ΣΣ sides

100.05%

⚖arb gap

0.050pp

$24h vol $

$2.8k

◐open interest $

$2.4M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPGATOUR-USO26-ARAI
Event ticker: KXPGATOUR-USO26
YES bid / ask: 0.50¢ / 0.60¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask: 99.40¢ / 99.50¢
Last YES: 0.60¢
Σ-sides: 100.05% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $2.81k
Volume total: $16.42k
Open interest: $2.36M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-05T04:00:00Z · 14.8d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Aaron Rai wins the U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (371 bars · effective 348153 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 14.8 d · σ/bar 0.024pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.45ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0060 · n = 371✓ n = 371

μ per bar

-0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.024pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.12pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move15d

0.45pp

σ × √356.11011861111115

Terminal variancebinary

0.0060

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

0.6¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.05pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 371

VaR 95%

0.04pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.05pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

45.5pp

peak 1.1¢ → trough 0.6¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

0.6%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

166.667

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+16567

$100 wins $16567

FractionalUK

165.67 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$16566.67

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.053 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.053 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

7.38 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.01 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:53:10 UTC
Snapshot age: 13.5s
SHA-256 attestation: b2290a028cced51fd110dd4de5d69f8a35c0af394033acd0d1a8f7e031f2606a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 371 barsperiods/year ≈ 348.2K

Realized vol (annualised)

1687.05%

σ per bar = 0.028592

Mean return (annualised)

-57034.54%

μ per bar = -0.001638

Sharpe (rf=0)

-33.81

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

45.45%

peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 332 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpgatour-uso26-arai/risk · same metrics, JSON