KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Wyndham Clark win the U.S. Open?

YES · live

2.9¢

NO · live

97.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpgatour-uso26-wcla · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.57%

realized vol (ann.)

26.51%

max drawdown

25.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

5.09%

RMS drawdown

pain index

2.50%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

15.96%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.06

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.06

upside/downside

roll spread

1.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

735

store

spread

2307.7 bps

24h Δ

3.57%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change +3.57%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpgatour-uso26-wcla/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

2.9¢

NO · live

97.4¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.30% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.30% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.189 / 1.00 bits (19%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

2.9%2.9¢34.48×▬ +0.00pp

97.1%97.4¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.30% · arb gap 0.30pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2m

·ticker

KXPGATOUR-USO26-WCLA

▲YES bid

2.30¢

▲YES ask

2.90¢

ΣΣ sides

100.30%

⚖arb gap

0.300pp

$24h vol $

$2.2k

◐open interest $

$834.9k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPGATOUR-USO26-WCLA
Event ticker: KXPGATOUR-USO26
YES bid / ask: 2.30¢ / 2.90¢ (spread 0.60pp)
NO bid / ask: 97.10¢ / 97.70¢
Last YES: 2.90¢
Σ-sides: 100.30% (arb gap 0.30pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $2.21k
Volume total: $27.53k
Open interest: $834.89k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-05T04:00:00Z · 20.5d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Wyndham Clark wins the U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (735 bars · effective 350776 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 20.5 d · σ/bar 0.045pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.99ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0282 · n = 735✓ n = 735

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.045pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.22pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move21d

0.99pp

σ × √492.6629633333333

Terminal variancebinary

0.0282

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

2.9¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.07pp · ES₉₅ 0.09pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 735

VaR 95%

0.07pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.09pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

25.0pp

peak 2.8¢ → trough 2.1¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

2.9%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

34.483

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+3348

$100 wins $3348

FractionalUK

33.48 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$3348.28

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.189 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.189 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

5.11 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.04 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:19:04 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2m
SHA-256 attestation: 84556a6f950960704b12e4b9c47271ddb9884fd415ea87c1aa8d5717f22b71bc · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 735 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

1045.58%

σ per bar = 0.017654

Mean return (annualised)

1677.00%

μ per bar = 0.000048

Sharpe (rf=0)

1.60

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

25.00%

peak 0.03 → trough 0.02 over 264 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpgatour-uso26-wcla/risk · same metrics, JSON