KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 14, 2026?

YES · live

7.2¢

NO · live

93.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxplatnerdropout-26 · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

74.88%

max drawdown

26.03%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

7.24%

RMS drawdown

pain index

4.86%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

13.84%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.31

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.31

upside/downside

roll spread

5.6 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

521

store

spread

1612.9 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxplatnerdropout-26/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

7.2¢

NO · live

93.8¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 101.00% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 101.00% (1.00pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.371 / 1.00 bits (37%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

7.1%7.2¢13.89×▬ +0.00pp

92.9%93.8¢1.07×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 101.00% · arb gap 1.00pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2m

·ticker

KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26

▲YES bid

5.70¢

▲YES ask

6.70¢

ΣΣ sides

101.00%

⚖arb gap

1.000pp

$24h vol $

$9.8k

◐open interest $

$339.7k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26
Event ticker: KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26
YES bid / ask: 5.70¢ / 6.70¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 93.30¢ / 94.30¢
Last YES: 7.20¢
Σ-sides: 101.00% (arb gap 1.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $9.76k
Volume total: $41.46k
Open interest: $339.69k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-14T03:59:00Z · 29.5d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (521 bars · effective 350426 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 29.5 d · σ/bar 0.127pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.37ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0668 · n = 521✓ n = 521

μ per bar

+0.002pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.127pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.62pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move29d

3.37pp

σ × √707.4707169444445

Terminal variancebinary

0.0668

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

7.2¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.21pp · ES₉₅ 0.26pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.30pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 521

VaR 95%

0.21pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.26pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

26.0pp

peak 7.3¢ → trough 5.4¢

Median step

0.30pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

7.2%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

13.889

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1289

$100 wins $1289

FractionalUK

12.89 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1288.89

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.373 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.373 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.80 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.11 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:29:34 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2m
SHA-256 attestation: f3cb0a76b8d55ccd7ac4ea677f5008b281d2095b8b3d8be547fc489ea17bf6e9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 521 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.4K

Realized vol (annualised)

1208.01%

σ per bar = 0.020407

Mean return (annualised)

8998.63%

μ per bar = 0.000257

Sharpe (rf=0)

7.45

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

26.03%

peak 0.07 → trough 0.05 over 45 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxplatnerdropout-26/risk · same metrics, JSON