KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES · live

11.0¢

NO · live

88.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpresnomd-28-joss · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 37 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

98.93%

max drawdown

8.33%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

2.37%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.68%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.35%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

8.33%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.00

upside/downside

roll spread

48.6 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

869.6 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-joss/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.3m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

11.0¢

NO · live

88.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.502 / 1.00 bits (50%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

11.1%11.0¢9.09×▬ +0.00pp

88.9%88.5¢1.13×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.3m

·ticker

KXPRESNOMD-28-JOSS

▲YES bid

11.00¢

▲YES ask

12.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$3.4k

◐open interest $

$3.2M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPRESNOMD-28-JOSS
Event ticker: KXPRESNOMD-28
YES bid / ask: 11.00¢ / 12.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 88.00¢ / 89.00¢
Last YES: 11.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $3.42k
Volume total: $516.12k
Open interest: $3.20M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-11-07T15:00:00Z · 871.3d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Jon Ossoff wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (420 bars · effective 344091 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 871.3 d · σ/bar 0.225pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 32.57ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0979 · n = 420✓ n = 420

μ per bar

+0.005pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.225pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.10pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move871d

32.57pp

σ × √20911.138887222223

Terminal variancebinary

0.0979

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

11.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.37pp · ES₉₅ 0.46pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 420

VaR 95%

0.37pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.46pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

10.0pp

peak 11.0¢ → trough 9.9¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

11.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

9.091

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+809

$100 wins $809

FractionalUK

8.09 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$809.09

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.500 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.500 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.18 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.17 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:50:21 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.3m
SHA-256 attestation: 8abe5047f2cad5689ae613cd6fd55e04e1ae9d6036f95af18e1ca22724688769 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 420 barsperiods/year ≈ 344.1K

Realized vol (annualised)

1232.67%

σ per bar = 0.021014

Mean return (annualised)

17397.03%

μ per bar = 0.000506

Sharpe (rf=0)

14.11

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

10.00%

peak 0.11 → trough 0.10 over 10 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-joss/risk · same metrics, JSON