KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES · live

3.3¢

NO · live

96.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpresnomd-28-mk · fresh · feed 47s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%

realized vol (ann.)

7.43%

max drawdown

3.03%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

2.08%

RMS drawdown

pain index

1.43%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

3.03%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

129

store

spread

307.7 bps

24h Δ

0.00%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-mk/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING47.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

3.3¢

NO · live

96.8¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.05% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.05% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.209 / 1.00 bits (21%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

3.3%3.3¢30.30×▬ +0.00pp

96.7%96.8¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.05% · arb gap 0.05pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

47.2s

·ticker

KXPRESNOMD-28-MK

▲YES bid

3.20¢

▲YES ask

3.30¢

ΣΣ sides

100.05%

⚖arb gap

0.050pp

$24h vol $

$721.0

◐open interest $

$3.0M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPRESNOMD-28-MK
Event ticker: KXPRESNOMD-28
YES bid / ask: 3.20¢ / 3.30¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask: 96.70¢ / 96.80¢
Last YES: 3.30¢
Σ-sides: 100.05% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $721.04
Volume total: $173.06k
Open interest: $2.98M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-11-07T15:00:00Z · 873.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Mark Kelly wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1579 bars · effective 349429 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 873.1 d · σ/bar 0.159pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 23.09ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0319 · n = 1579✓ n = 1579

μ per bar

-0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.159pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.78pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move873d

23.09pp

σ × √20955.00987611111

Terminal variancebinary

0.0319

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

3.3¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.26pp · ES₉₅ 0.33pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1579

VaR 95%

0.26pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.33pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

50.8pp

peak 6.5¢ → trough 3.2¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

3.3%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

30.303

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+2930

$100 wins $2930

FractionalUK

29.30 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$2930.30

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.209 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.209 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.92 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.05 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-18 11:58:37 UTC
Snapshot age: 47.2s
SHA-256 attestation: ce25506900eeaaa03e525248263d7095e8ca4d26debcbd54e840ab664ff79a62 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,579 barsperiods/year ≈ 349.4K

Realized vol (annualised)

1947.22%

σ per bar = 0.032941

Mean return (annualised)

-661.06%

μ per bar = -0.000019

Sharpe (rf=0)

-0.34

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

50.77%

peak 0.07 → trough 0.03 over 1407 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-mk/risk · same metrics, JSON