KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES · live

5.5¢

NO · live

94.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpresnomr-28-tcar · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -9.84%

realized vol (ann.)

21.53%

max drawdown

9.84%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

8.64%

RMS drawdown

pain index

7.65%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

9.84%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.50

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.50

upside/downside

roll spread

2.9 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

743

store

spread

531.0 bps

24h Δ

-9.84%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -9.84%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-tcar/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

5.5¢

NO · live

94.3¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.85% · fair

Σ-sides total = 99.85% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.308 / 1.00 bits (31%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

5.5%5.5¢18.18×▬ +0.00pp

94.5%94.3¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.85% · arb gap 0.15pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2m

·ticker

KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR

▲YES bid

5.50¢

▲YES ask

5.80¢

ΣΣ sides

99.85%

⚖arb gap

0.150pp

$24h vol $

$111.8

◐open interest $

$2.1M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR
Event ticker: KXPRESNOMR-28
YES bid / ask: 5.50¢ / 5.80¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask: 94.20¢ / 94.50¢
Last YES: 5.50¢
Σ-sides: 99.85% (arb gap 0.15pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $111.75
Volume total: $168.25k
Open interest: $2.06M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-11-07T15:00:00Z · 877.0d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (743 bars · effective 350734 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 877.0 d · σ/bar 0.036pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 5.27ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0520 · n = 743✓ n = 743

μ per bar

-0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.036pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.18pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move877d

5.27pp

σ × √21047.461162222222

Terminal variancebinary

0.0520

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

5.5¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.08pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 743

VaR 95%

0.06pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.08pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

9.8pp

peak 6.1¢ → trough 5.5¢

Median step

0.50pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

5.5%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

18.182

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1718

$100 wins $1718

FractionalUK

17.18 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1718.18

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.307 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.307 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.18 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.08 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:31:07 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2m
SHA-256 attestation: b67c8f81e6c583dfe7dd4effc10191b45d87f09d684acb40e23089fe25daa215 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 743 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

370.91%

σ per bar = 0.006263

Mean return (annualised)

-4894.23%

μ per bar = -0.000140

Sharpe (rf=0)

-13.20

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

9.84%

peak 0.06 → trough 0.06 over 106 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-tcar/risk · same metrics, JSON