KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES · live

15.0¢

NO · live

84.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpresperson-28-jvan · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -6.25%

realized vol (ann.)

109.56%

max drawdown

6.25%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

3.98%

RMS drawdown

pain index

2.54%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.22%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

6.25%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.92

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.92

upside/downside

roll spread

47.5 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

732

store

spread

645.2 bps

24h Δ

-6.25%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -6.25%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpresperson-28-jvan/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.1m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

15.0¢

NO · live

84.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.612 / 1.00 bits (61%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

15.1%15.0¢6.67×▬ +0.00pp

84.9%84.5¢1.18×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.1m

·ticker

KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN

▲YES bid

15.00¢

▲YES ask

16.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$543.7

◐open interest $

$1.6M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN
Event ticker: KXPRESPERSON-28
YES bid / ask: 15.00¢ / 16.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 84.00¢ / 85.00¢
Last YES: 15.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $543.69
Volume total: $429.04k
Open interest: $1.64M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2029-11-07T15:00:00Z · 1242.0d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (732 bars · effective 350784 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 1242.0 d · σ/bar 0.185pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 31.95ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1275 · n = 732✓ n = 732

μ per bar

-0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.185pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.91pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move1242d

31.95pp

σ × √29807.739801666667

Terminal variancebinary

0.1275

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

15.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.31pp · ES₉₅ 0.38pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 732

VaR 95%

0.31pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.38pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

6.3pp

peak 16.0¢ → trough 15.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

15.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

6.667

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+567

$100 wins $567

FractionalUK

5.67 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$566.67

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.610 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.610 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

2.74 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.23 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:14:29 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.1m
SHA-256 attestation: 4d2abfe0f47c3452313cc94269c64a1a8f6b996234f7b4032121dace83047dac · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 732 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

707.35%

σ per bar = 0.011943

Mean return (annualised)

-3097.00%

μ per bar = -0.000088

Sharpe (rf=0)

-4.38

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

6.25%

peak 0.16 → trough 0.15 over 49 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpresperson-28-jvan/risk · same metrics, JSON