KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES · live

3.0¢

NO · live

97.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpresperson-28-mkel · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 7.14%

realized vol (ann.)

4.23%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

1.8 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

784

store

spread

1052.6 bps

24h Δ

7.14%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change +7.14%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpresperson-28-mkel/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

3.0¢

NO · live

97.2¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.15% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.15% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.194 / 1.00 bits (19%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

3.0%3.0¢33.33×▬ +0.00pp

97.0%97.2¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.15% · arb gap 0.15pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2m

·ticker

KXPRESPERSON-28-MKEL

▲YES bid

2.70¢

▲YES ask

3.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.15%

⚖arb gap

0.150pp

$24h vol $

$85.0

◐open interest $

$1.2M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPRESPERSON-28-MKEL
Event ticker: KXPRESPERSON-28
YES bid / ask: 2.70¢ / 3.00¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask: 97.00¢ / 97.30¢
Last YES: 3.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.15% (arb gap 0.15pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $85.04
Volume total: $41.34k
Open interest: $1.24M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2029-11-07T15:00:00Z · 1241.9d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Mark Kelly is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (784 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 1241.9 d · σ/bar 0.007pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.23ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0291 · n = 784✓ n = 784

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.007pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.04pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move1242d

1.23pp

σ × √29806.43804472222

Terminal variancebinary

0.0291

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

3.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.20pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 784

VaR 95%

0.01pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.01pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

0.0pp

peak 2.8¢ → trough 2.8¢

Median step

0.20pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

3.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

33.333

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+3233

$100 wins $3233

FractionalUK

32.33 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$3233.33

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.194 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.194 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

5.06 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.04 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:32:30 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2m
SHA-256 attestation: a0349320178a8889ae52bdf17211db836a846b9ae8c85f3805ed1e23f1928281 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 784 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

146.00%

σ per bar = 0.002466

Mean return (annualised)

3089.78%

μ per bar = 0.000088

Sharpe (rf=0)

21.16

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

0.00%

peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 0 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpresperson-28-mkel/risk · same metrics, JSON