KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ECONOMICS

Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?

YES · live

77.6¢

NO · live

22.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxratecutcount-26dec31-t0 · fresh · feed 40s old

24h sparkline · 37 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

0.00%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

12.9 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxratecutcount-26dec31-t0/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING40.4s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

77.6¢

NO · live

22.4¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.95% · fair

Σ-sides total = 99.95% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.767 / 1.00 bits (77%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

77.6%77.6¢1.29×▬ +0.00pp

22.4%22.4¢4.47×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.95% · arb gap 0.05pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

40.4s

·ticker

KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0

▲YES bid

77.60¢

▲YES ask

77.70¢

ΣΣ sides

99.95%

⚖arb gap

0.050pp

$24h vol $

$9.3k

◐open interest $

$528.5k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Event ticker: KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31
YES bid / ask: 77.60¢ / 77.70¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask: 22.30¢ / 22.40¢
Last YES: 77.60¢
Σ-sides: 99.95% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $9.35k
Volume total: $1.04M
Open interest: $528.54k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z · 194.9d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (406 bars · effective 344892 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 194.9 d · σ/bar 1.351pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 92.39ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1738 · n = 406✓ n = 406

μ per bar

+0.015pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

1.351pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

6.62pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move195d

92.39pp

σ × √4677.132791944445

Terminal variancebinary

0.1738

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

77.6¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 2.21pp · ES₉₅ 2.77pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.015pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.20pp · unique ratio 0.15✓ n = 406

VaR 95%

2.21pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

2.77pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

18.9pp

peak 77.9¢ → trough 63.2¢

Median step

0.20pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

77.6%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.289

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-346

risk $346 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.29 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$28.87

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.767 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.767 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.37 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

2.16 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:50:21 UTC
Snapshot age: 40.4s
SHA-256 attestation: 42b0fb222fb829a31873fc1d853e1dd9f190b109715e57c47e3a3a46f004d01b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 406 barsperiods/year ≈ 344.9K

Realized vol (annualised)

1021.22%

σ per bar = 0.017389

Mean return (annualised)

6734.05%

μ per bar = 0.000195

Sharpe (rf=0)

6.59

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

18.87%

peak 0.78 → trough 0.63 over 68 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxratecutcount-26dec31-t0/risk · same metrics, JSON