KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?

YES · live

8.3¢

NO · live

91.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxsaveact-27-jan04 · fresh · feed 11s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%

realized vol (ann.)

89.11%

max drawdown

20.22%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

4.46%

RMS drawdown

pain index

2.37%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.17%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

11.65%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

58.3 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

784

store

spread

584.8 bps

24h Δ

0.00%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxsaveact-27-jan04/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING11.4s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

8.3¢

NO · live

91.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.75% · fair

Σ-sides total = 99.75% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.413 / 1.00 bits (41%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

8.3%8.3¢12.05×▬ +0.00pp

91.7%91.5¢1.09×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.75% · arb gap 0.25pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

11.4s

·ticker

KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04

▲YES bid

8.30¢

▲YES ask

8.80¢

ΣΣ sides

99.75%

⚖arb gap

0.250pp

$24h vol $

$2.2k

◐open interest $

$2.1M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04
Event ticker: KXSAVEACT-27
YES bid / ask: 8.30¢ / 8.80¢ (spread 0.50pp)
NO bid / ask: 91.20¢ / 91.70¢
Last YES: 8.30¢
Σ-sides: 99.75% (arb gap 0.25pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $2.22k
Volume total: $473.86k
Open interest: $2.10M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-01-04T15:00:00Z · 203.9d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (784 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 203.9 d · σ/bar 0.151pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 10.53ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0761 · n = 784✓ n = 784

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.151pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.74pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move204d

10.53pp

σ × √4894.455043888889

Terminal variancebinary

0.0761

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

8.3¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.25pp · ES₉₅ 0.31pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 784

VaR 95%

0.25pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.31pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

20.2pp

peak 8.9¢ → trough 7.1¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

8.3%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

12.048

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1105

$100 wins $1105

FractionalUK

11.05 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1104.82

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.413 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.413 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.59 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.13 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:32:30 UTC
Snapshot age: 11.4s
SHA-256 attestation: 278f3a2e1b7394e46fcc4d1e16fd66d8c5ccc2f7f9fd4073d9a9c3c35ac968a1 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 784 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

1060.60%

σ per bar = 0.017911

Mean return (annualised)

-0.00%

μ per bar = -0.000000

Sharpe (rf=0)

-0.00

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

20.22%

peak 0.09 → trough 0.07 over 237 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxsaveact-27-jan04/risk · same metrics, JSON