KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Los Angeles R win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

YES · live

17.0¢

NO · live

84.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxsb-27-lar · fresh · feed 16s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%

realized vol (ann.)

149.68%

max drawdown

11.76%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

3.80%

RMS drawdown

pain index

2.34%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.27%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

6.04%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

129.3 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

784

store

spread

1250.0 bps

24h Δ

0.00%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxsb-27-lar/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING16.4s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

17.0¢

NO · live

84.0¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 101.00% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 101.00% (1.00pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.654 / 1.00 bits (65%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

16.8%17.0¢5.88×▬ +0.00pp

83.2%84.0¢1.19×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 101.00% · arb gap 1.00pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

16.4s

·ticker

KXSB-27-LAR

▲YES bid

15.00¢

▲YES ask

17.00¢

ΣΣ sides

101.00%

⚖arb gap

1.000pp

$24h vol $

$9.0k

◐open interest $

$2.6M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXSB-27-LAR
Event ticker: KXSB-27
YES bid / ask: 15.00¢ / 17.00¢ (spread 2.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 83.00¢ / 85.00¢
Last YES: 17.00¢
Σ-sides: 101.00% (arb gap 1.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $9.04k
Volume total: $568.38k
Open interest: $2.63M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2029-02-13T23:30:00Z · 975.3d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Los Angeles R wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (784 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 975.3 d · σ/bar 0.253pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 38.69ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1411 · n = 784✓ n = 784

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.253pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.24pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move975d

38.69pp

σ × √23406.953653333334

Terminal variancebinary

0.1411

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

17.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.42pp · ES₉₅ 0.52pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 784

VaR 95%

0.42pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.52pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

11.8pp

peak 17.0¢ → trough 15.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

17.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

5.882

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+488

$100 wins $488

FractionalUK

4.88 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$488.24

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.658 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.658 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

2.56 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.27 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:32:30 UTC
Snapshot age: 16.4s
SHA-256 attestation: d83248911e256c73983fd6d9f83f41f5744d5f19a43d6f65907eddbc69e79c64 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 784 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

917.24%

σ per bar = 0.015490

Mean return (annualised)

-0.00%

μ per bar = -0.000000

Sharpe (rf=0)

-0.00

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

11.76%

peak 0.17 → trough 0.15 over 332 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxsb-27-lar/risk · same metrics, JSON