KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · COMPANIES

Will Paramount's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027?

YES · live

83.0¢

NO · live

17.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxtakeoveracqwb-27jun30-psky · fresh · feed 29s old

24h sparkline · 37 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

0.00%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

121.2 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxtakeoveracqwb-27jun30-psky/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING28.5s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

83.0¢

NO · live

17.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.667 / 1.00 bits (67%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

82.6%83.0¢1.20×▬ +0.00pp

17.4%17.5¢5.71×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

28.5s

·ticker

KXTAKEOVERACQWB-27JUN30-PSKY

▲YES bid

82.00¢

▲YES ask

83.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$1.3k

◐open interest $

$410.2k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXTAKEOVERACQWB-27JUN30-PSKY
Event ticker: KXTAKEOVERACQWB-27JUN30
YES bid / ask: 82.00¢ / 83.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 17.00¢ / 18.00¢
Last YES: 83.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $1.25k
Volume total: $1.27M
Open interest: $410.21k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z · 375.8d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If qualifying public announcements indicate Paramount's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded Before July 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (307 bars · effective 344331 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 375.8 d · σ/bar 0.961pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 91.31ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1411 · n = 307✓ n = 307

μ per bar

+0.013pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.961pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

4.71pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move376d

91.31pp

σ × √9020.136104444444

Terminal variancebinary

0.1411

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

83.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 1.57pp · ES₉₅ 1.97pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.013pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.04✓ n = 307

VaR 95%

1.57pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

1.97pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

13.3pp

peak 90.0¢ → trough 78.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

83.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.205

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-488

risk $488 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.20 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$20.48

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.658 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.658 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.27 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

2.56 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:50:21 UTC
Snapshot age: 28.5s
SHA-256 attestation: 813882f4e8684799c702a3549770b1771407e5f84f4bf4f1b08fbdf5022bfadf · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 307 barsperiods/year ≈ 344.3K

Realized vol (annualised)

677.88%

σ per bar = 0.011552

Mean return (annualised)

5557.99%

μ per bar = 0.000161

Sharpe (rf=0)

8.20

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

13.33%

peak 0.90 → trough 0.78 over 131 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxtakeoveracqwb-27jun30-psky/risk · same metrics, JSON