KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?

YES · live

2.5¢

NO · live

97.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxtrumpout27-27-26aug01 · fresh · feed 55s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.85%

realized vol (ann.)

3.78%

max drawdown

3.85%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

1.82%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.86%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

3.85%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.50

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.50

upside/downside

roll spread

1.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

737

store

spread

392.2 bps

24h Δ

-3.85%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -3.85%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-26aug01/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING54.6s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

2.5¢

NO · live

97.4¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.95% · fair

Σ-sides total = 99.95% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.169 / 1.00 bits (17%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

2.5%2.5¢40.00×▬ +0.00pp

97.5%97.4¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.95% · arb gap 0.05pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

54.6s

·ticker

KXTRUMPOUT27-27-26AUG01

▲YES bid

2.50¢

▲YES ask

2.60¢

ΣΣ sides

99.95%

⚖arb gap

0.050pp

$24h vol $

$94.2

◐open interest $

$2.1M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXTRUMPOUT27-27-26AUG01
Event ticker: KXTRUMPOUT27-27
YES bid / ask: 2.50¢ / 2.60¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask: 97.40¢ / 97.50¢
Last YES: 2.50¢
Σ-sides: 99.95% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $94.19
Volume total: $75.92k
Open interest: $2.09M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-08-01T14:00:00Z · 47.9d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Donald Trump leaves office before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (737 bars · effective 350734 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 47.9 d · σ/bar 0.006pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.22ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0244 · n = 737✓ n = 737

μ per bar

-0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.006pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.03pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move48d

0.22pp

σ × √1150.616009722222

Terminal variancebinary

0.0244

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

2.5¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 737

VaR 95%

0.01pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.01pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

3.8pp

peak 2.6¢ → trough 2.5¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

2.5%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

40.000

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+3900

$100 wins $3900

FractionalUK

39.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$3900.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.169 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.169 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

5.32 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.04 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:22:07 UTC
Snapshot age: 54.6s
SHA-256 attestation: 502e121dcd73ed74dab8e82d66c98736cc04f14ddedbde5d0761f525712b58cf · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 737 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

148.36%

σ per bar = 0.002505

Mean return (annualised)

-1869.02%

μ per bar = -0.000053

Sharpe (rf=0)

-12.60

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

3.85%

peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 221 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-26aug01/risk · same metrics, JSON