KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Donald Trump out before 2027?

YES · live

8.0¢

NO · live

92.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxtrumpout27-27-djt · fresh · feed 28s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.90%

realized vol (ann.)

34.85%

max drawdown

10.71%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

7.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

6.39%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

8.39%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.15

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.15

upside/downside

roll spread

1.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

738

store

spread

382.2 bps

24h Δ

3.90%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change +3.90%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-djt/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING27.9s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

8.0¢

NO · live

92.2¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.15% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.15% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.402 / 1.00 bits (40%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

8.0%8.0¢12.50×▬ +0.00pp

92.0%92.2¢1.09×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.15% · arb gap 0.15pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

27.9s

·ticker

KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT

▲YES bid

7.70¢

▲YES ask

8.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.15%

⚖arb gap

0.150pp

$24h vol $

$1.8k

◐open interest $

$2.3M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT
Event ticker: KXTRUMPOUT27-27
YES bid / ask: 7.70¢ / 8.00¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask: 92.00¢ / 92.30¢
Last YES: 8.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.15% (arb gap 0.15pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $1.77k
Volume total: $407.45k
Open interest: $2.33M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z · 201.0d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (738 bars · effective 350776 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 201.0 d · σ/bar 0.059pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 4.09ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0736 · n = 738✓ n = 738

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.059pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.29pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move201d

4.09pp

σ × √4823.599533611112

Terminal variancebinary

0.0736

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

8.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.10pp · ES₉₅ 0.12pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.20pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 738

VaR 95%

0.10pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.12pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

10.7pp

peak 8.4¢ → trough 7.5¢

Median step

0.20pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

8.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

12.500

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1150

$100 wins $1150

FractionalUK

11.50 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1150.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.402 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.402 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.64 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.12 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:23:33 UTC
Snapshot age: 27.9s
SHA-256 attestation: b8abc0b835b87ecaee70fff09f10250466267550b10590b4f3dd51272eb24ea0 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 738 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

438.43%

σ per bar = 0.007403

Mean return (annualised)

1819.15%

μ per bar = 0.000052

Sharpe (rf=0)

4.15

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

10.71%

peak 0.08 → trough 0.07 over 4 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-djt/risk · same metrics, JSON