KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026?

YES · live

35.0¢

NO · live

65.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxufcfight-26jul11mcghol-mcg · fresh · feed 41s old

24h sparkline · 39 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

274.29%

max drawdown

2.86%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.65%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.15%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.33%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

2.86%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

2.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

2.00

upside/downside

roll spread

191.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

289.9 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxufcfight-26jul11mcghol-mcg/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING40.8s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

35.0¢

NO · live

65.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.933 / 1.00 bits (93%) · high uncertainty

YES

34.8%35.0¢2.86×▬ +0.00pp

65.2%65.5¢1.53×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

40.8s

·ticker

KXUFCFIGHT-26JUL11MCGHOL-MCG

▲YES bid

34.00¢

▲YES ask

35.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$58.5k

◐open interest $

$2.2M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXUFCFIGHT-26JUL11MCGHOL-MCG
Event ticker: KXUFCFIGHT-26JUL11MCGHOL
YES bid / ask: 34.00¢ / 35.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 65.00¢ / 66.00¢
Last YES: 35.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $58.54k
Volume total: $1.17M
Open interest: $2.17M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-26T03:00:00Z · 35.8d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Conor McGregor wins the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (422 bars · effective 344125 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 35.8 d · σ/bar 0.638pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 18.70ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2275 · n = 422✓ n = 422

μ per bar

+0.007pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.638pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

3.13pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move36d

18.70pp

σ × √859.1025422222222

Terminal variancebinary

0.2275

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

35.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 1.04pp · ES₉₅ 1.31pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.007pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 422

VaR 95%

1.04pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

1.31pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

8.8pp

peak 34.0¢ → trough 31.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

35.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

2.857

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+186

$100 wins $186

FractionalUK

1.86 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$185.71

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.934 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.934 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.51 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.62 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:53:10 UTC
Snapshot age: 40.8s
SHA-256 attestation: fc366e9a1f5bec6bc44c12cc859bb4820dd0bdd0b809f013985a77b21b552e8c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 422 barsperiods/year ≈ 344.1K

Realized vol (annualised)

1152.61%

σ per bar = 0.019648

Mean return (annualised)

7324.88%

μ per bar = 0.000213

Sharpe (rf=0)

6.36

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

8.82%

peak 0.34 → trough 0.31 over 12 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxufcfight-26jul11mcghol-mcg/risk · same metrics, JSON