KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Ilia Topuria win the Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje UFC Freedom 250 fight by Decision?

YES · live

7.0¢

NO · live

93.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxufcmov-26jun14topgae-topdec · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

97.51%

max drawdown

25.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

7.86%

RMS drawdown

pain index

4.89%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

12.57%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.80

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.80

upside/downside

roll spread

240.5 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

481

store

spread

1538.5 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxufcmov-26jun14topgae-topdec/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.4m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

7.0¢

NO · live

93.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.365 / 1.00 bits (36%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

7.0%7.0¢14.29×▬ +0.00pp

93.0%93.5¢1.07×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.4m

·ticker

KXUFCMOV-26JUN14TOPGAE-TOPDEC

▲YES bid

6.00¢

▲YES ask

7.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$6.6k

◐open interest $

$166.6k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXUFCMOV-26JUN14TOPGAE-TOPDEC
Event ticker: KXUFCMOV-26JUN14TOPGAE
YES bid / ask: 6.00¢ / 7.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 93.00¢ / 94.00¢
Last YES: 7.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $6.57k
Volume total: $12.29k
Open interest: $166.61k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-29T02:10:00Z · 14.4d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Ilia Topuria wins by Decision during the Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje UFC Freedom 250 fight originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (481 bars · effective 350617 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 14.4 d · σ/bar 0.165pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.07ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0651 · n = 481✓ n = 481

μ per bar

-0.002pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.165pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.81pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move14d

3.07pp

σ × √346.65002833333335

Terminal variancebinary

0.0651

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

7.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.27pp · ES₉₅ 0.34pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 481

VaR 95%

0.27pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.34pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

25.0pp

peak 8.0¢ → trough 6.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

7.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

14.286

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1329

$100 wins $1329

FractionalUK

13.29 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1328.57

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.366 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.366 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.84 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.10 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:29:36 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.4m
SHA-256 attestation: 7e31ce9942f947168af5e6f9c5e7bc0e4a490ed42a256d2e8414c62cc2571d49 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 481 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.6K

Realized vol (annualised)

1365.24%

σ per bar = 0.023057

Mean return (annualised)

-9753.82%

μ per bar = -0.000278

Sharpe (rf=0)

-7.14

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

25.00%

peak 0.08 → trough 0.06 over 102 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxufcmov-26jun14topgae-topdec/risk · same metrics, JSON