KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Ilia Topuria win the Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje UFC Freedom 250 fight by KO/TKO/DQ?

YES · live

64.0¢

NO · live

36.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxufcmov-26jun14topgae-topkotkodq · fresh · feed 1s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

282.98%

max drawdown

3.08%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

1.06%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.53%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.68%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

3.08%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.03

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.03

upside/downside

roll spread

66.9 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

409

store

spread

157.5 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxufcmov-26jun14topgae-topkotkodq/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH864ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

64.0¢

NO · live

36.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.945 / 1.00 bits (95%) · high uncertainty

YES

63.7%64.0¢1.56×▬ +0.00pp

36.3%36.5¢2.74×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

864ms

·ticker

KXUFCMOV-26JUN14TOPGAE-TOPKOTKODQ

▲YES bid

63.00¢

▲YES ask

64.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$44.7k

◐open interest $

$135.1k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXUFCMOV-26JUN14TOPGAE-TOPKOTKODQ
Event ticker: KXUFCMOV-26JUN14TOPGAE
YES bid / ask: 63.00¢ / 64.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 36.00¢ / 37.00¢
Last YES: 64.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $44.66k
Volume total: $93.01k
Open interest: $135.10k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-29T02:10:00Z · 14.5d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO/DQ during the Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje UFC Freedom 250 fight originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (409 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 14.5 d · σ/bar 0.478pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 8.92ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2304 · n = 409✓ n = 409

μ per bar

+0.002pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.478pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

2.34pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move15d

8.92pp

σ × √348.0479030555556

Terminal variancebinary

0.2304

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

64.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.78pp · ES₉₅ 0.98pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 409

VaR 95%

0.78pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.98pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

3.1pp

peak 65.0¢ → trough 63.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

64.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.563

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-178

risk $178 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.56 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$56.25

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.943 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.943 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.64 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

1.47 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 14:07:06 UTC
Snapshot age: 864ms
SHA-256 attestation: d18c71c2e9f1dceb604a0cb8c2c0f0f9867edaf29a41815f75d2d92ce4265d66 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 409 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

441.62%

σ per bar = 0.007458

Mean return (annualised)

1353.51%

μ per bar = 0.000039

Sharpe (rf=0)

3.06

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

3.08%

peak 0.65 → trough 0.63 over 16 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxufcmov-26jun14topgae-topkotkodq/risk · same metrics, JSON