KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?

YES · live

33.0¢

NO · live

66.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxusairanagreement-27-26aug · fresh · feed 48s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 37.50%

realized vol (ann.)

235.31%

max drawdown

9.09%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

4.55%

RMS drawdown

pain index

3.58%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

9.09%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.33

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.33

upside/downside

roll spread

56.7 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

742

store

spread

298.5 bps

24h Δ

37.50%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change +37.50%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26aug/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING47.6s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

33.0¢

NO · live

66.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.917 / 1.00 bits (92%) · high uncertainty

YES

33.2%33.0¢3.03×▬ +0.00pp

66.8%66.5¢1.50×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

47.6s

·ticker

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG

▲YES bid

33.00¢

▲YES ask

34.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$14.0k

◐open interest $

$409.3k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
Event ticker: KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
YES bid / ask: 33.00¢ / 34.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 66.00¢ / 67.00¢
Last YES: 33.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $14.02k
Volume total: $408.14k
Open interest: $409.29k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-08-01T14:00:00Z · 47.9d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (742 bars · effective 350776 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 47.9 d · σ/bar 0.397pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 13.48ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2211 · n = 742✓ n = 742

μ per bar

+0.012pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.397pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.95pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move48d

13.48pp

σ × √1150.4932497222221

Terminal variancebinary

0.2211

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

33.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.64pp · ES₉₅ 0.81pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.012pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 742

VaR 95%

0.64pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.81pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

9.1pp

peak 33.0¢ → trough 30.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

33.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

3.030

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+203

$100 wins $203

FractionalUK

2.03 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$203.03

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.915 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.915 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.60 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.58 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:29:36 UTC
Snapshot age: 47.6s
SHA-256 attestation: d35ace64fe3bcb9598bcde6fd38dd2be1cc5620a39797d890dd7f7e38cb9d12c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 742 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

792.05%

σ per bar = 0.013373

Mean return (annualised)

15075.04%

μ per bar = 0.000430

Sharpe (rf=0)

19.03

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

9.09%

peak 0.33 → trough 0.30 over 36 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26aug/risk · same metrics, JSON