KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Team Heretics win the Team Heretics vs. Leviatán Esports Valorant match?

YES · live

37.0¢

NO · live

63.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxvalorantgame-26jun141300thlev-th · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

912.70%

max drawdown

63.64%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

15.15%

RMS drawdown

pain index

7.48%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

1.43%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

49.42%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.89

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.89

upside/downside

roll spread

260.3 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

383

store

spread

540.5 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26jun141300thlev-th/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.0m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

37.0¢

NO · live

63.0¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.951 / 1.00 bits (95%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

37.0%37.0¢2.70×▬ +0.00pp

63.0%63.0¢1.59×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.0m

·ticker

KXVALORANTGAME-26JUN141300THLEV-TH

▲YES bid

36.00¢

▲YES ask

38.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$55.4k

◐open interest $

$128.0k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXVALORANTGAME-26JUN141300THLEV-TH
Event ticker: KXVALORANTGAME-26JUN141300THLEV
YES bid / ask: 36.00¢ / 38.00¢ (spread 2.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 62.00¢ / 64.00¢
Last YES: 37.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.00% (arb gap 0.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $55.40k
Volume total: $56.55k
Open interest: $128.02k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z · 14.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Team Heretics wins the VCT Masters London 2026: Team Heretics vs. Leviatán Esports Valorant match originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026 at 1:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (383 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 14.1 d · σ/bar 1.542pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 28.33ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2331 · n = 383✓ n = 383

μ per bar

-0.031pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

1.542pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

7.55pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move14d

28.33pp

σ × √337.61414972222224

Terminal variancebinary

0.2331

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

37.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 2.57pp · ES₉₅ 3.21pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.031pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.07✓ n = 383

VaR 95%

2.57pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

3.21pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

63.6pp

peak 55.0¢ → trough 20.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

37.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

2.703

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+170

$100 wins $170

FractionalUK

1.70 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$170.27

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.951 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.951 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.43 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.67 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:22:07 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.0m
SHA-256 attestation: 29d02ed8488f644d63bf854b325473fd686da25398e6c0313b5678ddca233ea1 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 383 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

2630.74%

σ per bar = 0.044426

Mean return (annualised)

-25785.62%

μ per bar = -0.000735

Sharpe (rf=0)

-9.80

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

63.64%

peak 0.55 → trough 0.20 over 123 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26jun141300thlev-th/risk · same metrics, JSON