KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Turkiye vs USA Winner?

YES · live

46.0¢

NO · live

55.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwcgame-26jun25turusa-usa · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 6.98%

realized vol (ann.)

340.19%

max drawdown

14.58%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

5.90%

RMS drawdown

pain index

4.93%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.93%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

10.51%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.04

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.04

upside/downside

roll spread

136.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

738

store

spread

674.2 bps

24h Δ

6.98%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change +6.98%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun25turusa-usa/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

46.0¢

NO · live

55.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 101.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 101.50% (1.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.994 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

45.3%46.0¢2.17×▬ +0.00pp

54.7%55.5¢1.80×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 101.50% · arb gap 1.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2m

·ticker

KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURUSA-USA

▲YES bid

43.00¢

▲YES ask

46.00¢

ΣΣ sides

101.50%

⚖arb gap

1.500pp

$24h vol $

$34.7k

◐open interest $

$137.3k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURUSA-USA
Event ticker: KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURUSA
YES bid / ask: 43.00¢ / 46.00¢ (spread 3.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 54.00¢ / 57.00¢
Last YES: 46.00¢
Σ-sides: 101.50% (arb gap 1.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $34.70k
Volume total: $89.50k
Open interest: $137.27k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-10T02:00:00Z · 25.4d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If USA wins the Turkiye vs USA professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (738 bars · effective 350776 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 25.4 d · σ/bar 0.575pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 14.20ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2484 · n = 738✓ n = 738

μ per bar

+0.004pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.575pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

2.81pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move25d

14.20pp

σ × √610.5879580555555

Terminal variancebinary

0.2484

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

46.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.94pp · ES₉₅ 1.18pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 738

VaR 95%

0.94pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

1.18pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

14.6pp

peak 48.0¢ → trough 41.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

46.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

2.174

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+117

$100 wins $117

FractionalUK

1.17 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$117.39

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.995 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.995 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.12 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.89 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 15:23:33 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2m
SHA-256 attestation: d4fb2b114b76b27d02e4c6ab0aa863c31ecf9386bc231f8e1f12e5836941c202 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 738 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

761.48%

σ per bar = 0.012857

Mean return (annualised)

3209.88%

μ per bar = 0.000092

Sharpe (rf=0)

4.22

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

14.58%

peak 0.48 → trough 0.41 over 284 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun25turusa-usa/risk · same metrics, JSON