KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Erling Haaland lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament?

YES · live

9.0¢

NO · live

91.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwcgoalleader-26-ehaa · fresh · feed 42s old

24h sparkline · 37 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

0.00%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

store

spread

1176.5 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwcgoalleader-26-ehaa/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING41.9s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

9.0¢

NO · live

91.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.435 / 1.00 bits (43%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

9.0%9.0¢11.11×▬ +0.00pp

91.0%91.5¢1.09×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

41.9s

·ticker

KXWCGOALLEADER-26-EHAA

▲YES bid

8.00¢

▲YES ask

9.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$1.2k

◐open interest $

$526.8k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXWCGOALLEADER-26-EHAA
Event ticker: KXWCGOALLEADER-26
YES bid / ask: 8.00¢ / 9.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 91.00¢ / 92.00¢
Last YES: 9.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $1.16k
Volume total: $52.98k
Open interest: $526.82k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-08-07T14:00:00Z · 48.3d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Erling Haaland leads FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (389 bars · effective 347294 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 48.3 d · σ/bar 0.288pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 9.78ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0819 · n = 389✓ n = 389

μ per bar

+0.005pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.288pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.41pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move48d

9.78pp

σ × √1158.1490577777777

Terminal variancebinary

0.0819

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

9.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.47pp · ES₉₅ 0.59pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 389

VaR 95%

0.47pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.59pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

25.0pp

peak 8.0¢ → trough 6.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

9.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

11.111

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1011

$100 wins $1011

FractionalUK

10.11 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1011.11

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.436 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.436 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.47 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.14 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 07:50:21 UTC
Snapshot age: 41.9s
SHA-256 attestation: 0aa4b7956d44e94a703f735ac633dc2ad79caaff11b871cb45e05324bca61f66 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 389 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.3K

Realized vol (annualised)

2122.79%

σ per bar = 0.036021

Mean return (annualised)

22494.87%

μ per bar = 0.000648

Sharpe (rf=0)

10.60

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

25.00%

peak 0.08 → trough 0.06 over 13 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwcgoalleader-26-ehaa/risk · same metrics, JSON