KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

India vs Pakistan Winner?

YES · live

12.0¢

NO · live

88.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwt20match-26jun140930pakind-pak · fresh · feed 10s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

248.04%

max drawdown

21.43%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

11.48%

RMS drawdown

pain index

9.79%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.70%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

14.98%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.90

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.90

upside/downside

roll spread

277.5 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

264

store

spread

869.6 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun140930pakind-pak/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.6s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

12.0¢

NO · live

88.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.528 / 1.00 bits (53%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

11.9%12.0¢8.33×▬ +0.00pp

88.1%88.5¢1.13×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

9.6s

·ticker

KXWT20MATCH-26JUN140930PAKIND-PAK

▲YES bid

11.00¢

▲YES ask

12.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$10.5k

◐open interest $

$85.6k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXWT20MATCH-26JUN140930PAKIND-PAK
Event ticker: KXWT20MATCH-26JUN140930PAKIND
YES bid / ask: 11.00¢ / 12.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 88.00¢ / 89.00¢
Last YES: 12.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $10.48k
Volume total: $11.04k
Open interest: $85.60k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-16T17:30:00Z · 2.2d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Pakistan wins the India vs Pakistan women's professional Women's T20 World Cup cricket match originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026 at 9:30 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (264 bars · effective 350784 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 2.2 d · σ/bar 0.419pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.04ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1056 · n = 264✓ n = 264

μ per bar

-0.008pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.419pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

2.05pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move2d

3.04pp

σ × √52.72773472222222

Terminal variancebinary

0.1056

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

12.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.70pp · ES₉₅ 0.87pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.008pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 264

VaR 95%

0.70pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.87pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

21.4pp

peak 14.0¢ → trough 11.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

12.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

8.333

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+733

$100 wins $733

FractionalUK

7.33 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$733.33

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.529 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.529 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.06 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.18 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 12:46:10 UTC
Snapshot age: 9.6s
SHA-256 attestation: 991dae6819e3243ed8c8d5717a483ed92c54ecf19bfa7d463f8b68a9f785cf55 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 264 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

2011.68%

σ per bar = 0.033966

Mean return (annualised)

-20560.31%

μ per bar = -0.000586

Sharpe (rf=0)

-10.22

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

21.43%

peak 0.14 → trough 0.11 over 80 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun140930pakind-pak/risk · same metrics, JSON