NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Will the Switzerland win the 2026 Men's World Cup?
← Back to live dashboardEmbed cardOG previewTop moversArb
A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-ch page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.011 · f★ 1.1% · deploy 0.6% · net 0.35pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0110@ model P(YES) = 0.020
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 1.11% · g(f★) = 0.503%deploy 0.55% · g = 0.408%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.009 · EV +$170stake $139 · 0.55% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$139
0.55% of bankroll
Sharesunits
15,417
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$15,417
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$15,278
net of cost
Max losslose
-$139
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×111.11
$1 → $111.11
Risk:RewardR:R
110.11 : 1
win $110.11 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$170
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 2.0% | +$15,278 | +$306 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 98.0% | -$139 | -$136 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$170 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +1.1 pprelative edge +122.2%
Required win ratebreak-even
0.9%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
2.0%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+1.1 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.020
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
0.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
111.111
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+11011
$100 wins $11011
FractionalUK
110.11 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$11011.11
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 2124% · APY 106535998%ROI 122.2% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+122.2%
APR (simple)scaled
+2124%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+106535998%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+3.88%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge +0.35 pperosion 68% · break-even w/ fees 1.7%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$277
1.11% · g = 0.503%
Half Kelly½ f★
$139
0.55% · g = 0.408%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$69
0.28% · g = 0.261%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 0.500%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 0.348%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = -1.281%
Recommended¼ f★
$69
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.074 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.141 bit
Δ +0.067 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.80 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0050 nat (0.0073 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.020 · CI [0.00, 0.30] · κ 4.4
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.020
Beta(0.1, 4.4)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.00, 0.30]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
4.4
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+0.0 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] +205.6% · P(YES) 2.8% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
+205.56%
P(YES) empiricalq
2.8%
Best pathmax
+11011.1%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 1.46% · ruin rate 0.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 0.55%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.154
μ 1.83% · σ 11.9%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
3.292
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-0.6%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-0.6%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-13.0%
Calmar 0.11
Ruin rate≤50%
0.0%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -45.0pp · crowd gap -46.1pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
-45.0 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-46.1 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 19.1% · AUC 0.762out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 19.1% ± 2.3% · Brier 0.2023 · log-loss 0.5993 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.2023
lower = better · ō 0.50
BSSvs base
19.1%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0064
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0538
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5993
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.762
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
PROFITABLE · PF 1.10 · expectancy +0.044R180 trades · win 53.9% · Sharpe 0.041
Total P/Lnet
+$1,983
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
53.9%
97 W / 83 L
Profit factorPF
1.10
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
+$11.02
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
+0.044R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$234.36 / -$250.00
ratio 0.94 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
0.041
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.65 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.